4th & 3 Dudes - a CHAMPIONSHIP episode!

We discuss the epic, drama filled and RESILIENT win by the Dawgs over Texas! Then we delve into playoffs - scenarios, injuries, what makes sense and what doesn't. Go Dawgs!

Chaos theory and vegan nerds

Well, this didn't age well. But really, who knows how this college football season will end up.

As college football fans, we don't root for teams other than our own. But we fervently root for chaos. The more chaotic the better. So Saturday night did not disappoint.

And to this point I need to give credit where it's due. I was against expanding the playoffs (and am still reluctant to embrace it fully) because I was worried it would dilute the regular season.

For 2024, it definitely hasn't. It's actually expanded the scope of what is relevant.

Get a BIG neck. Eat a steak nerds! - Erk Russell, probably

I actually switched over to the Indiana game Saturday at times just to check in. At least, I did until they were officially wetting the bed. Any previous season, I doubt that happens. And I bet many of you can say the same.

I've been telling people for weeks, now the only way to ensure the CFB Playoff committee can't screw you over (like last year) is to make the SEC Championship Game. Win, you get a bye. Lose, you've proven you are the second best team in the nation's best conference.

So we've moved from worrying if there will be three or four SEC teams in the playoff, to which SEC newbie will meet us in Atlanta.

For now, couldn't care less. That's something to think about on Saturday. It's Tuck Fech week! GATA!

Very muddy CFB Playoff projections

I stopped doing my weekly CFB Playoff rankings once the real deal came out. But this week I started doing some reading, took down some notes, and came up with this scenario that is somewhere between loosely accurate and bizarrely far-fetched!

One thing is clear about the CFB Playoff committee's thinking - they hold the SEC and Big 10 in high regard. At this point I don't see a second ACC or Big XII team getting in. So setting current, projected championship teams (Miami/SMU, BYU/Colorado) of those respective conferences aside, and assuming either Boise State or Army gets the at large spot...let's lay things out, with the playoff contenders in bold:

• November 23rd, 12:45pm - Georgia vs UMass
• Bama @ Oklahoma, Kentucky @ Texas, Ole Miss @ Florida, A&M @ Auburn
• Indiana @ Ohio State, Penn State @ Minnesota, Oregon (bye)
• Notre Dame vs Army
• November 26th, 7:30pm - next round of CFB Playoff rankings revealed
  
• November 29th, 7:30pm - Georgia vs GA Tech
• Bama vs Auburn, Texas @ A&M, Ole Miss vs Miss St
• Indiana vs Purdue, Ohio St vs Mich, Penn St vs Maryland, Oregon vs Washington
• Notre Dame @ USC
• December 3rd, 7:30pm -penultimate round of CFB Playoffs rankings revealed
• December 7th, NOON - Big XII Championship, teams TBD (doesn't really matter)
• December 7th, 4:00pm - SEC Championship Game, teams TBD
• December 7th, 8:00pm - ACC Championship Game, teams TBD (doesn't really matter)
• December 7th, 8:00pm - Big 10 Championship Game, teams TBD
• December 8th, noonish - (who the hell really knows!)

Let me be clear, nothing is certain. Of course. Notre Dame could lose to Army this weekend and somehow the committee still washes their feet in absolution. I can see a world where Indiana plays Ohio State close before losing, beats Purdue, and still gets in despite the Hoosiers best win coming against Michigan. (I mean, look at their schedule and tell me who they've beaten that matters.)

Looking deeper at the premiere conference - the SEC - Tennessee gets back in the mix only with help. So we'd have to lose to GA Tech and/or Bama loses to Auburn. Texas A&M gets back in the mix by beating the Longhorns. The rest is pretty simple as all five teams control their own destiny. With the exception of the Longhorns going to College Station to end the regular season, none of the contenders play each other until the SECCG. 

In the Big 10, Oregon obviously has the easiest path getting a bye week this weekend. After the Ducks, I don't like Penn State as a playoff contender considering their awful schedule. But if they beat the Gophers and Terps, they are likely in. Ohio State has the tougher schedule, undefeated Indiana and rival Michigan, but both are at home.

Indiana is a wildcard. They're undefeated for a reason: their opponents suck, but how much does that factor into the committee's ruminations...??

The ACC might be the most clear. SMU and Miami win and they are in their conference championship game. It would then be a winner goes to the playoff, loser does not. Turns out Clemson's loss to Louisville at home was an elimination game for the Tigers.

Like the ACC, I don't see two Big XII teams getting in. Which leaves this projected layout:

• SEC - Conference champion, runner up, and two others. I'll go with Bama upsetting Texas for the SEC Crown. Longhorns host while Georgia and Ole Miss go on the road in the 1st round.
• Big 10 - Also, conference champion, runner up, and two others. I'll go with Oregon beating Ohio State (again). Buckeyes host while Penn State hosts as well, and Indiana goes on the road in the 1st round.
• ACC - SMU vs Miami, winner gets a bye. Loser gets a bowl.
• Big XII - More convoluted than the ACC, but let's say Colorado vs BYU. Winner take a bye. Loser a bowl.
• Notre Dame
• Boise State

The seedings if you will:

1. Oregon (bye)
2. Alabama (bye)
3. SMU (bye)
4. Colorado (bye)
5. Texas hosts 12 Indiana
6. Ohio State hosts 11 Boise State
7. Notre Dame hosts 10 Georgia
8. Penn State hosts 9 Ole Miss

Why do I feel I've just completed an exercise in futility? If you've read this entire post, thanks. And I'm sure you and I can agree, weird that an Indiana team could slide in ahead of a team like Tennessee. But it does bring a smirk to my face!

Go Dawgs!

Bye weeks and home games and seedings, oh my!

So how are we feeling with the updated ranking last night? Dawgs moved up after beating Tennessee, but looks like we will need help to earn either a first round home game, and certainly a trip to the SECCG and potential bye week.

To be honest, I was a little surprised our Dawgs didn't get more of a bump in the standings. Taking a broader view, it looks like the committee is trying to find value in things like strength of schedule, overall wins vs losses against ranked opponents.

But if that were truly the case, Georgia should be higher. Never mind what I type and what they think, what say you?

In the end, here on Nov. 20th, we still have more meaningful football to be played. We could say that in years before, but this year seems to be tenfold. I mean, would SMU @ Virginia be of much concern were it not for potential impact in the ACC Conference standings?

Regardless, make sure you are still participating in the Mumme Poll. The dear Senator is truly missed this season. It's the least we could do. Because God I miss his insight in times like this!

4th & 3 Dudes - episode 12

Forced to rehash the Ole Miss loss, we add Matt Tanner in to set the scene that was Oxford Saturday night. Then we move on to (hopefully) greener pastures.

National landscape - week 10, muddy waters

While I feel like we have a few teams that are definitely worthy, it's just a mess behind them right now. Luckily the real CFB Playoff rankings come out tonight. For now, let's get straight into it.

1. Oregon (bye)
2. Georgia (bye)
3. Miami (bye)
4. BYU (bye)
5. Indiana (hosts)
6. Texas (hosts)
7. SMU (hosts)
8. Ohio State (hosts)
   
9. Notre Dame
10. Boise State
11. Tennessee
12. Penn State

Oregon continues to show up and show out. Georgia is winning in spite of rampant turnovers behind a defense that looks like it's only going to get better. 

Indiana continues to impress. They go to Ohio State in a couple weeks. I considered dropping Penn State, but in the end left them at 12.

SMU is undefeated in the ACC, their only loss was to BYU by a field goal. I still have little faith in Miami, but they just keep winning. So Clemson's loss is their gain.

The SEC...I don't know. Texas, Tennessee, A&M, and LSU are good teams. I decided to leave the two of them with two losses out, for now.

Clemson and Iowa State are two that slipped out, but could work back into the fray. I have them on the bubble behind the likes of Army who probably deserves to be ranked. And they will if they take down Notre Dame (at home) in a couple weeks.

Anyway, as always, we close this weekly post with this: Those are at least some intriguing matchups in Round 1. $till not $old on making the $ea$on thi$ long. But I'd watch, and I gue$$ that'$ why they expanded, right?

National landscape - week nine, Oregon stands tall

Oregon stood up to Ohio State and dominated Illinois. Those are their only wins against ranked opponents. Does that make them worthy of the top spot? At this point I have them neck and neck with Georgia. Then again, it doesn't mean too much to be #1 vs #2 now that the playoff includes 12 teams. 

1. Oregon (bye)
2. Georgia (bye)
3. Clemson (bye)
4. BYU (bye)
5. Texas A&M (hosts)
6. Penn State (hosts)
7. Ohio State (hosts)
8. Notre Dame (hosts)
9. Iowa State
10. Miami
11. Texas
12. Boise State

The biggest move this week was A&M jumping up to #5. Last week I had LSU at #6, and really thought the winner of Saturday evening's game wouldn't be that strong of a consideration. But the Aggies showed me something different...in the second half. Marcel Reed makes them a true contender I think. Going to South Carolina will be a true road test, and they get Texas at home to close the season.

Elsewhere in the SEC, Georgia sits on their bye weekend. Moved Texas down a spot after their win over Vanderbilt. That's mostly because I still don't believe they have an offensive line that can consistently let their playmakers make plays. They're really, really bad.

Miami beat FSU by three touchdowns. Think about that for a moment. As recently as a year ago all the way back to the 90's, that would be a major headline. FSU is that bad and I really don't think Miami is that good. Again, without some help from the referees, the Canes could be 5-3.

The Big 10 is truly a mystery to me. After Oregon, what team is deserving? Indiana probably should be next. In the end I decided to let the Ohio State at Penn State game this weekend shake things out.

BYU notched a cross country road win against UCF to stay atop the Big 12. Their biggest competition for the top spot is Iowa State. The Cyclones definitely have the harder schedule ahead: Texas Tech on Saturday and at Utah later in November. 

The Golden Domes trounced a good Navy team. That loss to the Salukis really brought Notre Dame around.

Which brings me to #12. I don't know how you can leave Boise State or Army out of the equation at this point. The reason they expanded the playoffs was to give teams like these a chance. Army is undefeated and is probably the one team that no one really wants to play. But I'm sticking with the Broncos as they beat my original Group of 5 inclusion, UNLV.

And just because it's hate week: Where are the Gators you ask? Basking in their OT loss to the Vols maybe?

Anyway, as always, we close this weekly post with this: Those are at least some intriguing matchups in Round 1. $till not $old on making the $ea$on thi$ long. But I'd watch, and I gue$$ that'$ why they expanded, right?

Episode 9 - 4th & 3 Dudes

This episode may be sensitive for any Texas listeners. If you or someone you know suffers from the Georgia pass rush, seek professional help. And also grow a pair!

Follow, rate, review - 4th & 3 Dudes

National landscape, week eight shakes things up!

Perhaps last week I was a bit hasty in saying "the waters are a little less muddy." Bama was wildly inconsistent on the road and Texas didn't bother showing up until the 3rd quarter. And even then, only had spurts of success. Let's dig on in shall we?

1. Oregon (bye)
2. Clemson (bye)
3. Georgia (bye)
4. BYU (bye)
5. Penn State (hosts)
6. LSU (hosts)
7. Ohio State (hosts)
8. Notre Dame (hosts)
9. Iowa State
10. Texas
11. Miami
12. Boise State

I watched Miami beat Louisville on the road. I'm still not sold on them winning the ACC, but it was a win in a hostile-ish environment. Clemson however still has the better resume, and I believe the better overall team. Let's not forget, Miami was the beneficiary of bad calls against VA Tech, Cal, and now Louisville. They could easily be 4-3. So the Canes move into the rankings, but that's all I got for them right now.

ACC-lite: Notre Dame looked impressive against GA Tech in the Benz. But again, they'll need to beat Navy this weekend and Army late next month to stay in.

Georgia's win in Austin moves them up into a bye. I debated on how far Texas should slide and landed on (newcomer to the rankings) LSU hosting and Texas moving into a first round trip to Columbus. Alabama's lackluster performance in Neyland was more than enough for me to move them out, especially given it is their second loss in the state of Tennessee. Did the Vols show me enough to move back in? Nope. Keeping the SEC at three teams.

What about A&M, the SEC's other undefeated team (in conference play)? I decided to be as fair as possible. I took to social media and asked followers to vote on these five teams as a third entry for this week's rankings - A&M, LSU, Missouri, Texas, and Vanderbilt. LSU ran away with more than 50% of the votes. (If you don't follow me, here's the FB page and here's my TXitter.)

Moving on, Oregon benefitted from Texas' beat down to move up into the top spot. And they may not give it back as they have #20 Illinois this weekend, and after that their next ranked opponent could be in the Big10 Championship game. I didn't like the idea of both Penn State and Ohio State hosting a 1st round game, but with Bama and Texas Tech dropping out it was hard not to. They play each other in a couple weeks anyway. It'll sort out.

What about Indiana you say? They are undefeated, but the schedule seems soft to me. If they keep winning and take down the Buckeyes next month... 

In the Big12, BYU remains atop the conference with Iowa State. I keep BYU as the conference winner and it seemed time to move the undefeated Cyclones in.

As far as true contenders for the whole enchilada...Dawgs definitely showed they can put things together. Again, I don't think Oregon is going to move much, so I have them as a true contender. And then I guess you have to include Ohio State as well since their game with the Ducks could've gone either way. And I think they're my only three at this point. Everyone else either hasn't impressed me enough to put on that level, or they are simply suffering from a weak schedule so far. We'll see.

Anyway, as always, we close this weekly post with this: Those are at least some intriguing matchups in Round 1. $till not $old on making the $ea$on thi$ long. But I'd watch, and I gue$$ that'$ why they expanded, right?

National landscape, week seven

Waters are becoming less muddy I guess. And now that we're in the thick of it, and despite knowing that some two and maybe even three loss teams will make the playoffs, it sure feels like some one loss teams need to prove their worth.

1. Texas (bye)
2. Oregon (bye)
3. BYU (bye)
4. Clemson (bye)
   
5. Ohio State (hosts)
6. Georgia (hosts)
7. Alabama (hosts)
8. Texas Tech (hosts)
9. Notre Dame
10. LSU
11. Penn State
12. Boise State

The biggest game of the weekend brought us the best game of the season. The Ducks outlasted the Buckeyes and have solidified their bye week, at least for now. To round out the Big10 I kept Ohio State at 5 and dropped Penn State down to 11.

The Big12 has three undefeated teams in BYU, Texas Tech, and Iowa State. I'm keeping BYU as the conference winner, kept Texas Tech at 8, and considered letting Iowa State in. I've felt like Utah would play themselves back into contention, but their loss to Arizona State Friday night is gonna leave them hunting for a bowl game. BYU (probably) has the easiest path to a bye week in the playoffs. But along with Texas Tech and Iowa State, I think Kansas State and Arizona State are in contention.

ACC...each week I feel Clemson stakes a better claim than Miami. We'll see if the Tigers can hold it together.

ACC Lite...will it be Notre Dame's last week in the standings? They have trips to GA Tech and then Navy in the next two weeks. Win those as well as a 11/23 home game against Army and they may just survive that home loss to the Salukis.

Boise State Cruised through Honolulu, and they may very well keep cruising all the way to their season finale against Oregon State. As a reminder, the Broncos' only loss is to Oregon, by a field goal.

Lastly, the SEC. The only real change was swapping Ole Miss for LSU. I still feel it's more likely the SEC gets just three teams in the playoff bracket. Texas seems the only shoe-in. Bama is on a couple shaky wheels, and it's hard to believe LSU is good enough defensively to carry them into a playoff bid.

And with our Dawgs, the next month's gauntlet will prove we're deserving, or not.

Anyway, as always, we close this weekly post with this: Those are at least some intriguing matchups in Round 1. $till not $old on making the $ea$on thi$ long. But I'd watch, and I gue$$ that'$ why they expanded, right?

National landscape, week six. The Tide falls.

For the second week in a row, the Alabama Crimson Tide is the lead story, and the biggest cause for the poll's shuffle. Vandy held the Tide down, inspiring the Fighting Sam Pittmans to take down the Vols.

So here we go:

1. Texas (bye)
2. Oregon (bye)
3. BYU (bye)
4. Clemson (bye)
5. Ohio State (hosts)
6. Georgia (hosts)
7. Alabama (hosts)
8. Texas Tech (hosts)
9. Penn State
10. Ole Miss
11. Notre Dame
12. Boise State

Michigan and Tennessee fall out of this week's poll after losses to Washington and Arkansas respectively. In their place I've moved Ole Miss back in, as well as Notre Dame.

It's not that I'm sold that both of those teams will make it in the end, but I couldn't find another team to go in ahead of them. Miami's gonna get caught paying off referees eventually, so I couldn't put a 2nd ACC team in. 

In the Big 10, Oregon hosts Ohio State this weekend. I doubt I drop the loser out next week. They'll probably just swap spots. Penn State impresses a little more each week and they travel to USC this weekend.

And if Ole Miss survives a night game in Baton Rouge, they'll have proven me right. For this week at least.

As for the SEC, I think in the end the committee will likely (at least try to) keep the conference at three teams. I just can't put a Miami ahead of Ole Miss. Who else is worthy? Iowa State? I just can't see it.

I do see a chance for Utah to move back into the picture. The Utes host both BYU and Iowa State next month.

So a lot to be settled in the next couple months. And it starts this weekend!

National landscape, week five. The Tide rises!

This week finds another shakeup in my poll as well as the SEC. Alabama's 1st half beat down followed by its 4th quarter resiliency forces Texas out of the top spot. Beating Georgia is a quality win. The Longhorns defeat of Michigan (even though that one was on the road) isn't nearly as shiny.

Let's get straight to it.

1. Alabama (bye)
2. Oregon (bye)
3. BYU (bye)
4. Clemson (bye)
5. Texas (hosts)
6. Ohio State (hosts)
7. Georgia (hosts)
8. Michigan (hosts)
9. Tennessee 
10. Texas Tech
11. Penn State
12. Boise State

Sticking with four teams in the SEC. Ole Miss could play their way back in, but Missouri has the easier path. Alabama goes from 7 to 1 as they look the most ready for a post-season run. Meanwhile, Texas drops from 1 to 5, and therefore Georgia drops from 5 to 7. Tennessee stays put.

From there, things get muddy quickly.

In the Big10, I'm sticking with Oregon getting the conference's bye. Ohio State and Penn State I believe will be the other contenders. The Nittany Lions move into this week's poll thanks to UCF's loss to Deion Sanders' ego Colorado. Indiana and Michigan lead the conference with 2-0 records.

Over in the Big12, Utah's loss takes them out completely. I suspect they'll remain in contention however. And I hope the Utes bounce back, because after BYU there is Texas Tech and Colorado. The Red Radiers grab the 10 spot with the toss of a coin.

Lastly, I'm giving the Group of 5 spot to Boise State. The Broncos are the highest ranked G5 team in the AP, while UNLV is ranked in the Coaches Poll. I went with the Broncos because Ashton Jeanty is chasing record books and a Heisman trophy, not NIL money (that I know of).

Anyway, as always, we close this weekly post with this: Those are at least some intriguing matchups in Round 1. $till not $old on making the $ea$on thi$ long. But I'd watch, and I gue$$ that'$ why they expanded, right?

the Friday Misery is like Tyler Simmons...onside!

On September 18th, 1965 the Georgia Bulldog offense pulled off an infamous hook and lateral against the Crimson colored Tide for a touchdown inside the beautiful confines of Sanford Stadium. Tide fans argued that Georgia tight end Pat Hodgson's knees were down prior to said lateral, which is perhaps why Hodgson was so open on the next play for a 2-point conversion.

Dawgs won 18-17.

history teaches us nothing

Why bring up that game in 1965, which was even a few years before I was born? Because that's the only Georgia-Alabama game I think of prior to 2002, when Billy Bennett helped us to a win in Tuscaloosa to prove we were "man enough". For two teams that have met 73 times, there hasn't been much history to speak to. After that 2007 "one and done" overtime victory in Tuscaloosa, Alabama has dominated the series. Until Indy saw Bryce Young complete that beautiful touchdown pass to Kelee Ringo, they had won seven straight.

One night in Indy

The teams have played in seven different cities. And Indianapolis is the only one where we have a winning record against the Tide. Tomorrow night marks just the 11th time we've played them in Tuscaloosa (and we're looking for just our 3rd win btw). 

After that 2007 Dawgs' win, Saban went on to dominate Richt and Smart teams to the tune of 8-1. We never beat him in the SECCG in four tries, 2012 being our best chance. If it weren't for the National Championship win over Alabama, we would have a serious complex. They lead the series 43-26-4, but it's the recent history that draws the most frustration. The Richt teams getting dominated in 2008 and 2015. Then Kirby raised the bar, but the Tide still found ways to squirm into a win. (For reference, look back at the two 2018 matchups. Ugh.)

But that was then, and this is the Friday before the young season's biggest game. Coach DeBoer leads the Tide now, while Saban spends weekdays on the golf course. DeBoer's resume is a quick read, but shows he succeeds wherever he goes. Our beloved Coach Smart meanwhile is the second longest tenured coach in the conference.

This week I have seen some people suggest the series between these two teams is a rivalry. I disagree, at least not in the way of the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party or the Third Saturday in October. No, I see this as a series that, until recently, was rather ho-hum. Minus the occasional hook and lateral, it was likely to put Dawg fans to sleep.

We're awake now though, right?

prelude to a new era

I think it happened in the Benz Dome that fateful night January 8th, 2018. Kirby's Dawgs fought hard, but Bama prevailed.

It was devastating. The Georgia Bulldogs' first National Championship since Herschel's separated shoulder was in our grasp. And then the Mighty Sabanites pulled it away. Fists were clenched. Tears welled. Dreams dashed. We found breathing to be an arduous task.

Our coach, was our player

But that game showed us that we had a coach that could form a team of contenders. And we knew he could not only stand toe-to-toe with his godfather, but was much younger. Indianapolis came and went. Back 2 Back happened before our eyes.

And now Saban has retired, thus the commencement of the Crimson Tide Kalen DeBoer Era.

both here and now

While Kirby didn't cut his coaching teeth in Tuscaloosa, it was his home turf from 2007-2015. While he was trekking through Athens-Valdosta-Tallahassee-Baton Rouge-Athens again-Miami on his way to Tuscaloosa, Kalen DeBoer was building championship NAIA teams in Sioux Falls, South Dakota. He's known as an offensive mastermind, even before coordinating an Indiana offense that averaged well over 400 yards per game!

But he's never faced Them Dawgs. Much of his team helped defeat us in last year's SECCG, sure. But what pours from the heart of our head man, forms itself into his team's constitution.

So gimme Kirby effin' Smart. He's not afraid of Tuscaloosa, a title town he helped build the infrastructure for. He's not afeared of their copy-cat lights and some Dixieland Delights. And he for damn sure ain't gonna shy away from a dude named Kalen.

Hold your head up high fellow Dawg fans...our coach is a Dawg and not a pachyderm! Now let's bow our heads...dear Lord our God, we pray for those that have been in Helene's nasty path. And this is a big one tomorrow night, so provide a path to sack that Milroe a few times. And Carson Beck can take it from there! Amen, and Go Dawgs!

National landscape, week four. Longhorns in it for the long haul.

The further we get into the season the more some things take shape. Clemson has clearly put the opening week beat down behind them. Auburn is still better at making excuses than fielding a functioning SEC quarterback. Florida can show a pulse playing in the likes of Starkville, MS.

Take a moment and let that one simmer. 😉

Similarly, Texas lost it's starting quarterback, but hasn't lost its step. At all. Of course, it helps when said starter's backup has a last name of Manning. But still, they have looked the part. Their only solid opponent was Michigan, whom they manhandled. But they've done what they were supposed to do against the others, including the cupcakes.

We'll know for sure after Georgia visits Austin next month, but for now they remain my top team in the SEC.

Scanning the other conferences and Group of 5's...Clemson continues to roll. Even with the loss compared to Miami's 4-0 record, I have the Tigers winning the ACC and getting the conference's only bid. In the Big10, staying with Oregon. Then I have Ohio State at 2a and Michigan at 2b. Ohio State's schedule thus far has been empty calories, but Michigan's loss to Texas still weighs heavier than its win over USC Saturday. Penn State also in the mix for the 2nd or 3rd Big10 playoff spot. 

Admittedly, this is where I go solely on what I have read or seen in just Sunday morning highlights. I can see the Big12 getting two spots, likely between these three teams: Utah, BYU, and UCF. Kansas State and Oklahoma State both lost, but they play each other this weekend. So the winner could get back in the mix. And the Group of 5 is a crapshoot between UNLV and Liberty, with NIU, Boise State and Memphis hanging around.

Enough of the plodding and the plotting. Here's this week's bracket:

1. Texas (bye)
2. Oregon (bye)
3. Utah (bye)
4. Clemson (bye)
5. Georgia (hosts)
6. Ohio State (hosts)
7. Alabama (hosts)
8. Michigan (hosts)
9. Tennessee 
10. BYU
11. UCF
12. UNLV

A few changes this week. Most notably, put Tennessee in as the last SEC team over previously seeded Ole Miss. Both could get in, but right now I'm sticking with four SEC teams and the Vols added to their resume with the win in Norman. Michigan gets the third Big10 spot ahead of Penn State this week. And BYU and UNLV get in instead of NIU and Boise State.

Anyway, as always, we close this weekly post with this: Those are at least some intriguing matchups in Round 1. $till not $old on making the $ea$on thi$ long. But I'd watch, and I gue$$ that'$ why they expanded, right?

National Landscape, week three. The Dawgs lose a first round bye.

Once again, this week brings some changes. Although I'm not overly concerned about this Georgia team, I do admit it now feels less likely we can go undefeated. The Dawgs' schedule is just brutal and the offensive line is down a starter and looked road weary already Saturday night.

So I'm shaking up my SEC stance this week. I'm moving Texas up to the top, which drops Georgia significantly. And I'm also shying away from my confidence in the SEC getting five teams in. To put it as concisely as I can, I think Georgia, Alabama, and Texas are my clear favorites to compete for the conference crown. And I think all three get in the playoffs. That leaves Ole Miss, Missouri and Tennessee on a second tier, and maybe only one of them gets in.

Why? Of those three, Tennessee has the hardest path. They get Bama at home, and go on the road against their other two ranked opponents - Oklahoma this weekend, and Georgia in November. Missouri - away games against A&M and Bama, home against Oklahoma. Ole Miss - home against Oklahoma and Georgia. It's early I know, but it feels like these three need to shove their way onto that first tier to guarantee a spot come December.

Lucky for them, there's still a LOT of football to be played.

In the ACC, I'm sticking with Clemson over Miami. And I still don't see a second team making the playoffs. In the Big10 however, Oregon finally showed some hope for a post-season run in their win over a pesky Oregon State team. I'll keep Penn State and Ohio State in, but move the Ducks up to a 1st round bye. And in the Big 12, Kansas State's rout of Arizona put them on my radar. But I'm keeping Utah as both the Big 12's conference champ and only seed in the bracket.

The only thing left to decide: if I scale the SEC's seedings down from five to four, who gets the other spot. At this point I'd have to go with the Salukis, as NIU's victory over Notre Dame is the Group of 5's biggest win thus far. In fact it only looked better after the Fighting Irish laid waste to the Boilermakers this past weekend. But keeping an eye on Toledo and Memphis here too.

Onto the bracket:

1. Texas (bye)
2. Oregon (bye)
3. Utah (bye)
4. Clemson (bye)
5. Georgia (hosts)
6. Penn State (hosts)
7. Alabama (hosts)
8. Ohio State (hosts)
9. Ole Miss
10. UCF
11. Boise State
12. NIU

Yes, I know that Tennessee and Missouri are likely better than (probably) both Group of 5 teams. But it's September 18th, and I prefer to recognize NIU's play on the field rather than reward something...I don't know...something like an onside kick in the 1st quarter when you're up 30-0.

Anyway, as always, we close this weekly post with this: Those are at least some intriguing matchups in Round 1. $till not $old on making the $ea$on thi$ long. But I'd watch, and I gue$$ that'$ why they expanded, right?

National Landscape, week two

 Wow, what a difference a weekend makes. Because just last week I wrote this:

"Notre Dame has the best track into the CFB Playoffs."

I typed those words because the "Fighting" Irish are both independent and have a super soft schedule. Fresh off a road win over A&M, heading into this past weekend, their toughest test seemed to be a neutral site game (Atlanta's Benz Dome) against GA Tech. Then the Northern Illinois Salukis got off the bus in South Bend. I mean, this schedule is so soft they get FSU at home!

The Irish can still make the playoffs, and likely will given the media's obsession with them. But my broader point is hoo boy, things changed quickly!

I think my feelings in the SEC are the same as last week: Georgia a clear favorite as we prepare to begin our conference slate. I still believe the SEC enjoys getting four more spots. But I'd put Texas ahead of Alabama, and Tennessee ahead of Ole Miss.

Same for the ACC. Clemson rebounded nicely, while the Hurricanes' win over florida fails to impress me much.

Everyone is putting a lot of stock in Nebraska after the Huskers kicked Deion's merry band of transfer portals to the curb. For now, I'll stick with Penn State out of the Big10 and I am penciling in Ohio State.

In the Big 12, Arizona State edged out Mississippi State at home. But I'm sticking with that regular season ending matchup between UCF and Utah as the conference's biggest game.

So all in all, except for Notre Dame dropping out, this week's ranking is very similar to last week's. I just had to decide who to place in the Irish's spot. I ruminated, argued with a wall, and then eventually watched a monkey fling poo at said wall. Went with a third Big 10 team. Congrats Ducks!

1. Georgia (bye)
2. Penn State (bye)
3. Utah (bye)
4. Clemson (bye)
5. Texas (hosts)
6. Ohio State (hosts)
7. Alabama
8. Tennessee
9. Ole Miss
10. UCF
11. Oregon
12. Boise State

And I also decided last week's closing will continue to end this weekly post indefinitely. Those are at least some intriguing matchups in Round 1. $till not $old on making the $ea$on thi$ long. But I'd watch, and I gue$$ that'$ why they expanded, right?

the Sunday Misery is moonlight through the pines

"Muscle Shoals has got the Swampers..."

Love me some Skynard. But this week, like no other, I prefer just an old sweet song.

My tell-tale Dawg heart
In elementary school, teachers invited us to the front of the room to either show or tell. You had an option to show the class something that was important to you, or tell them something that was important to you.

Can you guess what I usually chose?

In 1972 my parents moved to Athens GA. I was two and a half years old. I didn't move away until I went off to college.

In my grade school years I remember passing the railroad tracks on the east side of Sanford and seeing it full of empty beer and whiskey bottles plus the occasional worn-down recliner on the way to Sunday School.

After the National Championship in the 1981 Sugar Bowl, I remember all of the billboards around Athens featuring the Junkyard Dawgs and the phrase "Hunker Down"!

Somewhere around 1983, I remember the house that was built adjacent to the Dooley's home near the intersection of West Lake Dr and Milledge Cir. The joke was that Coach was building it for Herschel. I was almost young enough to believe it.

Later, I went to Cedar Shoals High School. I was a couple years behind Athens Good Samaritan Bryant Gantt. He's the guy you've seen on the Georgia sideline probably since the Donnan years. As a lifelong fan turned employee of the University, he's on his way to becoming the only contemporary I know that is on a trajectory that legends like Coach Dooley and, dare I say, Coach Magill were on decades ago.

In 1988 I graduated high school at Stegeman Coliseum. The same Steg I used to (occasionally) skip Wednesday night choir practice with Chip to see Durham's Hoop Dawgs play.

In the Fall of 1989 I completed my transfer from LaGrange College and enrolled at UGA. ("Still in peaceful dreams I see, the road leads back to you.) It was what I have sometimes affectionately referred to here on the blog as my "first sophomore year" of college. It was also Goff's first year as head coach.

In 1990 Coach Webber's Diamond Dawgs won the College World Series. At this point I had been to (at least) twice as many baseball games on campus as I had football games. I bet a majority of today's freshman don't even know what or where Foley Field is.

Beauties.

Also in 1990 I went from being on Academic probation to Honor Roll. A feat Coach Goff, unfortunately, could not replicate. I eventually graduated in 1993. He was fired in 1995. After the similar up and down trajectories of our UGA careers, I got a diploma and he got Zaxby's. Since it was Guthrie's that got me through all those years, I still say I got the better separation package.

In 1996, at Coach Donnan's debut they gave out t-shirts. But we lost to Southern Miss 11-7 and I saw a dude take our a lighter and burn his new souvenir before he even left Sanford. Sidenote - I think Kirby was a sophomore on that team.

In 1997 I married Jenn, the biggest, most badass Dawg fan I know. Our first dance was to a little tune called Georgia, by Ray Charles.

Also in 1997 I cried after a football game for the first time when Donnan's Dawgs beat Florida. Well, they didn't beat them so much as they whooped their ass until the rules stated that they had to stop.

In 2000 I went back to UGA to become what we affectionately refer to as a "Double Dawg", so I had a student ID for both Donnan's final season as well as Richt's first.

In 2002 Jenn and I began our lil Dawg family. Nothing cuter than a girl in pigtails wearing Georgia red!

I documented most of the remaining years in this post-Richt firing post. I don't want to bore you down an already beaten path, but I would like emphasize that all the way through the Richt era I strengthened friendships with friends like Nama, Fred, Joe Waterloo, Cord, and their wives and families around Georgia football.

Undefeated Tailgate Crew

Like you I've also made many friends around tailgates like Tanner, Hillary, the Wrangler, Dustin, Doherty, Matt, and their wives and families. Saturdays in the fall just aren't the same without them.

Thanks to social media I got to meet Robert and Kerri plus her husband Barry out in Boulder in '09. I also met Tony on that trip, on a bourbon aisle of a local liquor store of course. On the concourse right before Ralphie ran onto Folsom Field, Ben screamed at me and we yelled "Go Dawgs!" together for the first time.

On other trips, UGA events, and the occasional Drive By Truckers concert I've met other Damn Good Dawg fans like Mackie, Krisi, Jen from La Jolla, Buddy, the Thinking Bulldog, Groo, Kit, Jake & April & Bryan, Sorrow & Trevin, DentalDawg, Chase, Andrew, Brad, Sandy, Angie, Scott from the Boro, Paul Westerdawg, John aka the Oconee River Rat, Tony & Russ, Jason, and of course the Eternal Redcoat Brett.

I've shared a ride to Columbia SC with Salty to share some beers with Ben, only to suffer through the worst beat down I've seen our Dawgs take.

After the Dawgs' win in Jacksonville Derrick, Colby, and Eddie helped me sacrifice my car. Next year we're going to find a different way to celebrate a WLOCP win.

Even through all the ups and downs, the relationships have held me true.

OUR tell-tale Dawg heart
That's a really, really long way of pointing out that we all have a story. It's moments like this, before your team plays its biggest game in decades, that we as fans tend to reflect on how we, personally, got here.

As the old saying goes, it's not the destination but the journey that's important. Today, here on the eve of the 2018 College Football National Championship, I respectfully disagree. It's both the journey and the destination.

It's the moonlight through those Georgia pines. It's the old sweet song that keeps bringing us back each and every August.

We've all worked through our own moments of fear and trepidation to get here. We've all hugged perfect strangers in the stands of Sanford and other stadiums in the Southeast and beyond when some player wearing that most magnificently beautiful helmet made a play. We've all buried our heads in our hands more often than we've raised them to the Heavens.

And here we are. It started in our veins, it coursed through our heart, and brought us to our feet!

Tweet Champs!

We've stood together in agony. We've put our arms around each other in desperation. We've traveled the nation and drank towns dry. We've suffered through coaching searches and injuries and dropped passes and also getting passed on by the national narrative.

But Kirby's team has punched its own ticket. It's been a fabulous ride...

2017's Final stanza
...but it ain't over. This magical season just had to end with Alabama. Like no other the Tide have stood between us and greatness the most often and the most resolute. They held us five yards short. They've beat us down twice in our own stadium in the last nine years.

And you may have heard recently that our coach is their former assistant. While the national media lazily tries to draw similarities, we need to remember that Kirby is quick to point out the differences. Tucker's defense is more like Junkyard Dawgs than Saban Crimson clones.

After all, sheep are for Tenersee "farmers".

Yes, this season has to end with Alabama. And come Monday night (or very early Tuesday morning) there's no reason the winner can't be Georgia. After all, the Tide had to fight their way in. They are still trying to prove they belong. The national analysts keep saying "It's an all SEC final!". But only one of us is the conference champion. They may like the cut of the Tide's jib, but Saban failed to win his own damn division.

Meanwhile some keep saying "well goshdarn whatever happens happens and beyond a Rose Bowl berth this season is just gravy".

Is that you? Are you satisfied? Is that defeatist attitude something our coaches and players would endorse? Is that why Fromm set the edge for Sony last Monday night so that you could post your #RoseBowl excitement on bookface and scream with glee just so he and Chubb and Zo and Bellamy and Dominick could have the chance to friggin' lose their final game of their Georgia Bulldog career? Is that why Lorenzo Carter finally came back down to Earth earlier this week after hovering endlessly over the Rose Bowl turf to block that damn kick?

Dude, your sadness makes Alanis Morisette want to make another starving dog commercial. Get a gotdamn grip!

We're Georgia and we belong right where we are. They're the ones that need to prove they belong. They're the ones that're bringing their cousins to Atlanta...as dates. They're the ones that have a complacent fan base. They're the ones with a coach that's spent 20 years on AARP benefits.

Let's bring this home. Let's complete this journey! Our destination has been the same since we became Dawg fans! Our goal hasn't wavered since Bellamy stripped sacked that Domer in South Bend! Our focus has been steadfast since the blood coursed through the veins into our heart and brought us to our feet!

Truly, I don't know if we'll win tomorrow, but I can't think of one reason why we can't. We've come this far, we've followed our own paths. For 37 years we've turned our heads towards the Southwest corner for the Battle Hymn until we've developed a crick in our neck. We've joined hands and raised our four fingers and most recently a phone's flashlight to beckon our own inner Glory Glory!

I don't know what the future holds, but I know it's bright and I only want it brighter. Like, NOW! I want the confetti to drench and nearly drown Nick Chubb. I want to see Sony make #JazzHands and snow angels on the Mercedes-Benz floor. I want to see that gap in Zo's smile as he hoists the trophy.  I want to see Bellamy holding the ball he stripped from Hurts with two minutes left on the stage as he accepts the MVP award.

I want to hug my kids with a championship hug. I want my wife to know the joy that she's been been screaming and longing for all these years. I want my friends to feel the joy that I know they've all earned ten times over. I want you, my loyal and eager Reader, to enjoy the long and joyous smile of a truly satisfied Georgia Buldog fan.

Glory Glory, let us bow our thankful heads y'all....dear Lord, we thank you for the opportunity to play in Atlanta one more time. Please let Roquan find many a ball carrier and Wynn raise Chubb to your Heavens at least one more time! In the name of Herschel's Separated Shoulder and Munson's Metal Steel Chair, Amen! Go Dawgs!

#KeeptheMainThingtheMainThing

Georgia vs. Alabama - could special teams tilt the balance?

Like many, I expect a pretty even matchup Monday night between Georgia and Alabama. Two complete teams with elite talent going head to head should make for an exciting game.

Not exciting like the Rose Bowl was, where dudes were scoring every time you managed a breath. But exciting as in close, and hard fought. Every yard inch will  matter. So could this one come down to special teams play?

In a word, absolutely.

VIA

The teams are pretty even in punting and place kicking, although Rodrigo puts it in the endzone more proficiently. But there is a decided Georgia advantage in both kickoff and punt return. (via cfbstats.com)

Mecole Hardman, who has been so, so close to breaking a return all season, averages 11 yards per punt return and 27 yards per kick return. Alabama's top punt returner is Trevon Diggs who averages nearly nine yards a return and their top kick returner is Henry Ruggs who averages 18 yards.

If this evolves into a plodding game of field position, there are two things that can turn things - turnovers and punt returns. I glad we have 4 on our side. Even if he doesn't break one - and good God is Mecole overdue for that one last block!! - a nice return from inside the 20 to their side of the 50 can be a HUGE play for us.

Two more days! Keep the Main Thing the Main Thing...Go Dawgs!

Georgia vs. Alabama, a deep look at X's and O's

If you haven't already I think you'd really enjoy this National Championship preview podcast from Solid Verbal. Dan chats with Chris Brown of Smart Football, who always has a certain depth to his analysis. He has some interesting thoughts on how Chaney specifically could impact the game. And I particularly appreciated how he breaks down the relationship between Kirby and Saban and the role it could play in terms of each others' understanding and game planning going into Monday night.

Suffice it to say, Brown isn't just giving the the relationship cute lip service like many national analysts. Add it to your podcast feed...soon!

Georgia vs. Alabama, the rushing game

One thing is clear, whichever team has the ball Monday night will be trying to establish the run. The Dawgs and the Tide, respectively, are one and two in the conference in rushing the football.

But how they go about achieving that goal are two vastly different animals.

Georgia uses a variety of sets and looks to get Nick Chubb and Sony Michel, college football's most prolific backfield tandem, into space. Offensive coordinator Jim Chaney wants to have the opponent's defense sufficiently worn down in the fourth quarter when he can even insert D'Andre Swift into the huddle with fresh legs.

For a great reference to that point, make sure you've thoroughly vetted this post by The Senator where he specifically points out how Oklahoma's secondary grew tired of being blocked the deeper into the game they got.

By contrast, Alabama uses multiple looks as well, but they rely heavily on the legs of Jalen Hurts, not to mention his ability to make the correct reads in the read-option and run-pass-option.

So when someone tries to tell you that this is just the same ol' Bama, take that with a grain of salt. Because they don't have that heavy bruiser of a tailback that they use to tote the rock 20-25 times a game.

Damien Harris is a strong runner and likes to get downhill. He's also athletic, something usually attributed more to his colleague Bo Scarbrough. But together they really handle most of the handoffs, albeit to the tune of just 19 carries/game combined (via cfbstats.com)

And that's because this is Jalen Hurts' show. He doesn't have as many yards as Harris, but he has the most carries. For the most part he does a good job of reading the defense and determining which run option is best.

However, he ain't perfect. This video of Sugar Bowl highlights gives you an idea of how they utilize the running backs mentioned, but also shows you that Hurts can get flustered. For instance, pay particular attention to the moderate pressure (at best) up the middle Clemson throws at him at about the 2:30 mark when they are able to force a fumble off a bad read and exchange.

That's something, as we discussed yesterday, that could play into Coach Tucker's hands. The Tiger linebacker is really just making a read and playing off of Hurts' eyes. I wouldn't even call it a blitz. Plug Roquan in there on a favorable down and distance and it could definitely lead to a positive result.

That's all well and good. But no matter what anyone (myself included) writes or what any expert on the television tells you this week, we all know from past meetings that this game will come down to which team controls the line of scrimmage best.

In the 2012 SECCG it was practically a draw at the line of scrimmage until late when we had used pretty much the same defensive front the entire game. John Jenkins was gassed and we couldn't stop Eddie Lacy or TJ Yeldon.

Tucker's defense is much more versatile than Grantham's 2012 version. And the point of this post is to highlight the possibility that Alabama's offense is less versatile today than it was then. In other words, stop Hurts and you stop the Tide. They just don't have that one running back that can wear on you from down to down.

Well, to be honest, I think Harris especially fits the bill. It's just that they don't use him that way. Perhaps I just haven't watched enough of them to know that they just don't need him or Scarbrough as much as Hurts. In Harris' best game against Vandy he had 12 carries for 151 yards. In the close game against Mississippi State thogh he was averaging over 11 yards a carry but only touched it eight times. Meanwhile Hurts had 19 carries for two yards a clip (sack yardage included).

Have they been saving 34 and 9's legs just for this game Monday?

In the end I'm going to give Georgia the edge in the rushing game, all while hoping I'm not just seeing what I want to see. Because admittedly, I've watched a lot more of Georgia than Alabama. I just see our rushing attack as much more versatile.

Keep the Main Thing the Main Thing...Go Dawgs!