Very muddy CFB Playoff projections

I stopped doing my weekly CFB Playoff rankings once the real deal came out. But this week I started doing some reading, took down some notes, and came up with this scenario that is somewhere between loosely accurate and bizarrely far-fetched!

One thing is clear about the CFB Playoff committee's thinking - they hold the SEC and Big 10 in high regard. At this point I don't see a second ACC or Big XII team getting in. So setting current, projected championship teams (Miami/SMU, BYU/Colorado) of those respective conferences aside, and assuming either Boise State or Army gets the at large spot...let's lay things out, with the playoff contenders in bold:

• November 23rd, 12:45pm - Georgia vs UMass
• Bama @ Oklahoma, Kentucky @ Texas, Ole Miss @ Florida, A&M @ Auburn
• Indiana @ Ohio State, Penn State @ Minnesota, Oregon (bye)
• Notre Dame vs Army
• November 26th, 7:30pm - next round of CFB Playoff rankings revealed
  
• November 29th, 7:30pm - Georgia vs GA Tech
• Bama vs Auburn, Texas @ A&M, Ole Miss vs Miss St
• Indiana vs Purdue, Ohio St vs Mich, Penn St vs Maryland, Oregon vs Washington
• Notre Dame @ USC
• December 3rd, 7:30pm -penultimate round of CFB Playoffs rankings revealed
• December 7th, NOON - Big XII Championship, teams TBD (doesn't really matter)
• December 7th, 4:00pm - SEC Championship Game, teams TBD
• December 7th, 8:00pm - ACC Championship Game, teams TBD (doesn't really matter)
• December 7th, 8:00pm - Big 10 Championship Game, teams TBD
• December 8th, noonish - (who the hell really knows!)

Let me be clear, nothing is certain. Of course. Notre Dame could lose to Army this weekend and somehow the committee still washes their feet in absolution. I can see a world where Indiana plays Ohio State close before losing, beats Purdue, and still gets in despite the Hoosiers best win coming against Michigan. (I mean, look at their schedule and tell me who they've beaten that matters.)

Looking deeper at the premiere conference - the SEC - Tennessee gets back in the mix only with help. So we'd have to lose to GA Tech and/or Bama loses to Auburn. Texas A&M gets back in the mix by beating the Longhorns. The rest is pretty simple as all five teams control their own destiny. With the exception of the Longhorns going to College Station to end the regular season, none of the contenders play each other until the SECCG. 

In the Big 10, Oregon obviously has the easiest path getting a bye week this weekend. After the Ducks, I don't like Penn State as a playoff contender considering their awful schedule. But if they beat the Gophers and Terps, they are likely in. Ohio State has the tougher schedule, undefeated Indiana and rival Michigan, but both are at home.

Indiana is a wildcard. They're undefeated for a reason: their opponents suck, but how much does that factor into the committee's ruminations...??

The ACC might be the most clear. SMU and Miami win and they are in their conference championship game. It would then be a winner goes to the playoff, loser does not. Turns out Clemson's loss to Louisville at home was an elimination game for the Tigers.

Like the ACC, I don't see two Big XII teams getting in. Which leaves this projected layout:

• SEC - Conference champion, runner up, and two others. I'll go with Bama upsetting Texas for the SEC Crown. Longhorns host while Georgia and Ole Miss go on the road in the 1st round.
• Big 10 - Also, conference champion, runner up, and two others. I'll go with Oregon beating Ohio State (again). Buckeyes host while Penn State hosts as well, and Indiana goes on the road in the 1st round.
• ACC - SMU vs Miami, winner gets a bye. Loser gets a bowl.
• Big XII - More convoluted than the ACC, but let's say Colorado vs BYU. Winner take a bye. Loser a bowl.
• Notre Dame
• Boise State

The seedings if you will:

1. Oregon (bye)
2. Alabama (bye)
3. SMU (bye)
4. Colorado (bye)
5. Texas hosts 12 Indiana
6. Ohio State hosts 11 Boise State
7. Notre Dame hosts 10 Georgia
8. Penn State hosts 9 Ole Miss

Why do I feel I've just completed an exercise in futility? If you've read this entire post, thanks. And I'm sure you and I can agree, weird that an Indiana team could slide in ahead of a team like Tennessee. But it does bring a smirk to my face!

Go Dawgs!

Bye weeks and home games and seedings, oh my!

So how are we feeling with the updated ranking last night? Dawgs moved up after beating Tennessee, but looks like we will need help to earn either a first round home game, and certainly a trip to the SECCG and potential bye week.

To be honest, I was a little surprised our Dawgs didn't get more of a bump in the standings. Taking a broader view, it looks like the committee is trying to find value in things like strength of schedule, overall wins vs losses against ranked opponents.

But if that were truly the case, Georgia should be higher. Never mind what I type and what they think, what say you?

In the end, here on Nov. 20th, we still have more meaningful football to be played. We could say that in years before, but this year seems to be tenfold. I mean, would SMU @ Virginia be of much concern were it not for potential impact in the ACC Conference standings?

Regardless, make sure you are still participating in the Mumme Poll. The dear Senator is truly missed this season. It's the least we could do. Because God I miss his insight in times like this!

When anxiety gives way to Eagerness

You're having a nice meal in a very nice restaurant. It hasn't been perfect, but the company at the table is fun and engaging. Sure, you've had better meals. But it's a great evening and you won't have to do the dishes. The bar has a terrific array of bourbons. The wife is happy with her wine selection. Then...

CRACK! You bite down on something, a tooth crumbles and you just scream.

Life is pain. Mileage may vary.

Our Dawgs are out of sync, and almost out of time as well.

Yep. I think Saturday night was the first game in a while I didn't enjoy. Well, beyond the opening moments. After that it was a nightmare.

Sure, Tuscaloosa sucked. But we showed fight. Even a weird story like Jekyll & Hyde has some thrilling moments weaved into the insanity.

But Oxford man...no answers. No clue. No way. It was mistake after mistake where you just wanted to be able to take a knee the entire 4th stanza and get the hell out of there.

Jan.1st, 1993     Zeier > Herbstreit

Yet, once they had their second chance to storm the field and it was finally over, I could breathe easier. I still believe these are the best of times. I matriculated during an era when our best season (by far) was a Citrus Bowl trip. I remember leaving the stadium in Donnan's first game, an 11-7 loss to Southern Mississippi, we saw a kid holding up his free t-shirt for attending the game and setting it on fire!

I can take this and roll with it. Yes, it's your individual prerogative to call for a new quarterback, a new head coach (!!), a new coordinator. We got pantsed by Kiffin and you can be butthurt about it. But would you rather be a Seminole fan about now?

Didn't think so. Part of me was anxious about what we might see when the hypefulled up volunteers come rolling into town tomorrow. But I'm now eager, not anxious.

The whole team looked out of sync Saturday night in Oxford. Tanner mentioned on yesterday's podcast, it felt like the coaches had no confidence. The line can't block, the quarterback can't throw, the receivers can't catch. Jesus Christ on a bicycle! You may be sick of screen passes, but what is Bobo to do?

Punt. Okay, now let's do the defense....

Nope, that's enough. Let's move forward. Because whether you hate this team or you're sticking by them, we should all be able to agree that there's one team in the nation no one wants to play when their backs are against the wall - Kirby Smart's Georgia GotDamn Bulldogs!

They comin'!

Let them bring their boxes of Franzia, sing their strangely semi-fictional fight song, and talk about the days when Bill Clinton was misusing cigars and Tom Hanks was desperately trying to save Private Ryan from Nazi controlled Europe. I'm eager to see how we handle another strong defense. I'm eager to see how well the crowd affects their ability race the play clock. I'm eager to see Coach Strickland grab and struggle to hold Kirby's belt. I'm eager to see how the team responds. And by God, I'd love to see Thorson use another gap wedge right leg to paint their offense into a super tight coffin corner!!

I've mentioned how this team appears to lack a leadership that we've grown accustomed to seeing the last few years. Well, it's time to step up. It's getting late and the committee is seeing longer shadows. Let's tee it up 'tween the hedges and give them something to think about!

Go Dawgs!

4th & 3 Dudes - episode 12

Forced to rehash the Ole Miss loss, we add Matt Tanner in to set the scene that was Oxford Saturday night. Then we move on to (hopefully) greener pastures.

Digesting Ole Miss...and our own fans

Turns out I was right, the offensive line play was key. Unfortunately, we weren't up to the task of remotely blocking their well paid world beaters.

The next day Brooks shed some light in the wake of the Stacy Searels haters.

Matt Luke left a void the trip to Oxford could not navigate.

But to be honest, I'm most disappointed in our fan base. We got overly disgruntled at Carson when he smiled on the sideline. We called for the heads of Bobo, Searels, and even Kirby. 

Absent a trip to Atlanta for the SEC Championship, we have all of our goals in front of us. Win out at home and we're in the playoffs. Why are we bitching and whining about our backup quarterback cheering up our starting quarterback when he was at his lowest? Isn't that something we should applaud?

Look in the mirror. If you're reading this you are most likely a fan of the National Championship team two of the last three years.

Get.

A.

Grip.

Then let's kick Tennessee a new one.

Key to a W in Oxford

I think it starts with our offensive line. This is the highest paid, most talented defensive front we've faced this season. They thrive in the backfield, averaging over 10 TFLs and 4.5 sacks a game. 

It is definitely a full defensive team effort, but these are the four main culprits, all averaging double digits in tackles for loss:

• 

  Suntarine Perkins leads the Rebels in sacks and TFLs

  #4 Suntarine Perkins - Soph LB having a whale of a season
• #38 JJ Pegues - Senior DT in his third season in Oxford after starting in Auburn
• #1 Princely Umanmielan - Senior Edge Rusher, previously a Gator
• #11 Chris Paul Jr. - Junior LB picked up off waivers from Arkansas

They way I see it, we have two things playing in our favor: 1) our OL is as healthy as its been in awhile, and 2) their defense hasn't played nearly the level of opponents that we have.

Our OL did pretty well in Texas, all things considered. It's going to be hard to run on these guys, so I'm looking for Bobo to get creative in the running game and utilize 11 and 86 in some misdirection and take advantage of the Rebels' tendency to be aggressive.

The last thing Carson Beck needs is a defensive front that consistently has their ears pinned back. Bobo might press the gas pedal down in some situations, but I'd like to see a workmanlike effort to move the chains and sit on the clock. If we're leaning on this defense in the 4th quarter, it's gonna be Goodnight Rebs!

"He overcame a lot today." - Kirby on Beck

In between ripping lips, glad BassinDawg also caught this nugget from SEC Inside. Watch it and then answer a couple questions.

#Dawgs Kirby definitely has Beck’s back as seen in this video from SEC Inside.
“He didn’t play his best game, but we can help him by playing better around him.”
💯🐶🏈 #GoDawgs #Kirby pic.twitter.com/yhFbtBnZWr

— GATA Dawgs (@BassinDawg) November 7, 2024

Does Kirby's locker room have a morale problem?

Can it be any clearer that 15 is our ride or die guy?

Carson "what the heck" Beck

Let's start with what we know.

• Beck has an NFL arm that he will use to play on Sundays.
• He has been pretty conservative with the ball dating back to last season. Checks down to safe(r) targets when necessary.
• Except when he doesn't. The biggest games we've had this season (@ Bama, @ Texas, Florida) he's made some costly decisions with the ball. It's not just the 11 total INTs this season compared to six (!!) total last season. It's that most of them have been very bad reads/decisions.
• Sometimes a QB gets dinged with an INT that could actually be another offensive player's fault - bad route, tipped ball, receiver got outplayed for the ball. Most of Carson's are entirely on him. And that's what's unsettling.
• That all being said, Beck is our clear QB1, and based on the fact that he's thrown 7 interceptions in the last three games and yet Kirby still has not pulled him, it ain't very close between Beck and QB2.
  

Some things we've seen and heard that shed some light:

• Bobo calls plays to start a game to get Beck in a rhythm. We know this based on our early game plans. When it goes well you get a 51-13 win over Kentucky in Athens last season. When it doesn't you get a 13-12 rock fight like we saw in Lexington back in September.
• Beck has lost his most trusted targets. This is pretty evident as well. Many times Beck and his targets are not on the same page. And it's not just McConkey and Bowers being in the NFL. Word is his greatest rapport with a receiver after 2023 ended was with RaRa - gone! Next was Colbie Young - not available.^*
• Beck is not like Stetson. Well duh, but let me broaden this out. We've had quarterbacks for years who have (at least) grown up in Georgia, some even lifelong Dawg fans. Zeier, Bobo, Greene, DJ, Hutson, Fromm, Stetson just to name a few. Beck I think is more like Stafford. He came to Athens because it was the right business decision. Beck wanted to learn from Monken and now Bobo, because they could best prepare him for the NFL Draft.

Personally, I don't fault that decision if it's indeed true. He signed with Georgia right as Coley was being replaced by Monken. His other SEC options were Florida and Alabama. We know Mullen wasn't a great recruiter, so I see why Beck chose not to take his chances in Gainesville. So it was Sark or the incoming Monken. Beck had to see a better opportunity in Athens with Fromm leaving town. He'd be in a QB room with JT Daniels (Soph), Stetson Bennett (Jr), and D'Wan Mathis (Fr).^** Alabama had Mac Jones (Jr) and Bryce Young (Fr).

Regardless, to my earlier point, Carson Beck is who we've got. In the third quarter against the Gators, Kirby/Bobo had every right to put in Stockton or Rashada. They didn't. That's all we need to know about which quarterback gives us the best chance to win. You can whine and complain, it doesn't matter. Beck is our quarterback. Ride or die! Just find a way to enjoy it. It's college football, not political nonsense. 😎

Kirby Smart and Mike Bobo know football. The rest of us are just thumb typing and sideline watching. Go Dawgs!

^{* Sounds like there is a chance Young makes it back on the roster. But at the moment for the unforeseeable future, the senior wide receiver is suspended pending battery and assault charges.}

^{** Jamie Newman had transferred to UGA, but opted out in August 2020. Since Newman was a senior and Bennett was a junior and former walk-on, I can see why Athens was the more attractive landing spot.}

National landscape - week 10, muddy waters

While I feel like we have a few teams that are definitely worthy, it's just a mess behind them right now. Luckily the real CFB Playoff rankings come out tonight. For now, let's get straight into it.

1. Oregon (bye)
2. Georgia (bye)
3. Miami (bye)
4. BYU (bye)
5. Indiana (hosts)
6. Texas (hosts)
7. SMU (hosts)
8. Ohio State (hosts)
   
9. Notre Dame
10. Boise State
11. Tennessee
12. Penn State

Oregon continues to show up and show out. Georgia is winning in spite of rampant turnovers behind a defense that looks like it's only going to get better. 

Indiana continues to impress. They go to Ohio State in a couple weeks. I considered dropping Penn State, but in the end left them at 12.

SMU is undefeated in the ACC, their only loss was to BYU by a field goal. I still have little faith in Miami, but they just keep winning. So Clemson's loss is their gain.

The SEC...I don't know. Texas, Tennessee, A&M, and LSU are good teams. I decided to leave the two of them with two losses out, for now.

Clemson and Iowa State are two that slipped out, but could work back into the fray. I have them on the bubble behind the likes of Army who probably deserves to be ranked. And they will if they take down Notre Dame (at home) in a couple weeks.

Anyway, as always, we close this weekly post with this: Those are at least some intriguing matchups in Round 1. $till not $old on making the $ea$on thi$ long. But I'd watch, and I gue$$ that'$ why they expanded, right?

Digesting the WLOCP - the bad, the good, and the HAVOC

Let's get the bad out of the way. Carson Beck had another awful start. He continues to struggle connecting with targets and overall doesn't look polished like he did towards the end of last season. The interceptions were baffling, to be honest.

The defense struggled in the first half and clearly missed Jackson and Aguero. The Gators should not have gotten that last field goal to end the half. Our secondary followed their motion and left a weakened weak side over-matched.

That's it. That's the bad. The defense returned to form when Jackson and Aguero were given their helmets back and released from SEC officiating purgatory. Florida didn't amass 200 total yards of offense until that last touchdown drive midway through the 4th quarter.

Bobo called a great game, balancing it between managing through Beck's rough start and losing Etienne. Frazier stepped up into the role well, and Cash did his usual Cash things. So the loss of Etienne was troubling, but not devastating by any means.

And Hello! Peanut! 

We are all Peanut fans#GoDawgs | @DwightP_2024 pic.twitter.com/ee2ZPAVmNm

— Georgia Football (@GeorgiaFootball) November 4, 2024

Saturday was probably the best game our tight end room has had this season: blocking, route running, and catching. That's encouraging!

Woodring and Thorson had great days, but until that bad snap/hold Florida was having an even better day at special teams.

I watched the tv version last night and was surprised to hear Herbstreit say the Georgia fans were not into it. In the stands I felt the opposite was true. Going back to Kirby's words to the fans after the Auburn game, I feel like Dawg fans have only gotten louder and dug in deeper behind the team.

And having a couple great defensive outings has helped. You take a play like Daniel Harris made, that brings a lot of noise from Georgia fans. Sacks, solid tackling, meeting the ball carrier at the line of scrimmage, CJ Allen leaping in anticipation of a bad pass...just HAVOC in general dissolves any perceived separation between those in red on the field and those in red in the stands.

Let's end with Beck. I'm sure you are hearing it too. No one knows more than Carson that he needs to be better. The fact that he's had three interceptions in each of the last two games and we've still managed to win both by two touchdowns is both amazing and nerve wracking.

But if you think he's not our best option by a wide margin, you're just not paying attention. Many coaches would've pulled the quarterback after that third interception in the early moments of the second half. And let's be honest, Beck could've had four by that time!

But Kirby did not pull him. That tells me Beck was still our best option to win the game. That being said, in the television replay I could see Kirby getting less "hand holding" with 15 and more firm in the "it's time to step up" message as we entered the final frame.

And let's be fair, Carson did step up. He was 11 for 11 in the deciding final 15 minutes of the game. 

I may spend another post on our quarterback later in the week, but for now let's acknowledge the fact that we've won four straight in Jacksonville. Something that we haven't been able to do since the '80s!

Go Dawgs!