Very muddy CFB Playoff projections

I stopped doing my weekly CFB Playoff rankings once the real deal came out. But this week I started doing some reading, took down some notes, and came up with this scenario that is somewhere between loosely accurate and bizarrely far-fetched!

One thing is clear about the CFB Playoff committee's thinking - they hold the SEC and Big 10 in high regard. At this point I don't see a second ACC or Big XII team getting in. So setting current, projected championship teams (Miami/SMU, BYU/Colorado) of those respective conferences aside, and assuming either Boise State or Army gets the at large spot...let's lay things out, with the playoff contenders in bold:

• November 23rd, 12:45pm - Georgia vs UMass
• Bama @ Oklahoma, Kentucky @ Texas, Ole Miss @ Florida, A&M @ Auburn
• Indiana @ Ohio State, Penn State @ Minnesota, Oregon (bye)
• Notre Dame vs Army
• November 26th, 7:30pm - next round of CFB Playoff rankings revealed
  
• November 29th, 7:30pm - Georgia vs GA Tech
• Bama vs Auburn, Texas @ A&M, Ole Miss vs Miss St
• Indiana vs Purdue, Ohio St vs Mich, Penn St vs Maryland, Oregon vs Washington
• Notre Dame @ USC
• December 3rd, 7:30pm -penultimate round of CFB Playoffs rankings revealed
• December 7th, NOON - Big XII Championship, teams TBD (doesn't really matter)
• December 7th, 4:00pm - SEC Championship Game, teams TBD
• December 7th, 8:00pm - ACC Championship Game, teams TBD (doesn't really matter)
• December 7th, 8:00pm - Big 10 Championship Game, teams TBD
• December 8th, noonish - (who the hell really knows!)

Let me be clear, nothing is certain. Of course. Notre Dame could lose to Army this weekend and somehow the committee still washes their feet in absolution. I can see a world where Indiana plays Ohio State close before losing, beats Purdue, and still gets in despite the Hoosiers best win coming against Michigan. (I mean, look at their schedule and tell me who they've beaten that matters.)

Looking deeper at the premiere conference - the SEC - Tennessee gets back in the mix only with help. So we'd have to lose to GA Tech and/or Bama loses to Auburn. Texas A&M gets back in the mix by beating the Longhorns. The rest is pretty simple as all five teams control their own destiny. With the exception of the Longhorns going to College Station to end the regular season, none of the contenders play each other until the SECCG. 

In the Big 10, Oregon obviously has the easiest path getting a bye week this weekend. After the Ducks, I don't like Penn State as a playoff contender considering their awful schedule. But if they beat the Gophers and Terps, they are likely in. Ohio State has the tougher schedule, undefeated Indiana and rival Michigan, but both are at home.

Indiana is a wildcard. They're undefeated for a reason: their opponents suck, but how much does that factor into the committee's ruminations...??

The ACC might be the most clear. SMU and Miami win and they are in their conference championship game. It would then be a winner goes to the playoff, loser does not. Turns out Clemson's loss to Louisville at home was an elimination game for the Tigers.

Like the ACC, I don't see two Big XII teams getting in. Which leaves this projected layout:

• SEC - Conference champion, runner up, and two others. I'll go with Bama upsetting Texas for the SEC Crown. Longhorns host while Georgia and Ole Miss go on the road in the 1st round.
• Big 10 - Also, conference champion, runner up, and two others. I'll go with Oregon beating Ohio State (again). Buckeyes host while Penn State hosts as well, and Indiana goes on the road in the 1st round.
• ACC - SMU vs Miami, winner gets a bye. Loser gets a bowl.
• Big XII - More convoluted than the ACC, but let's say Colorado vs BYU. Winner take a bye. Loser a bowl.
• Notre Dame
• Boise State

The seedings if you will:

1. Oregon (bye)
2. Alabama (bye)
3. SMU (bye)
4. Colorado (bye)
5. Texas hosts 12 Indiana
6. Ohio State hosts 11 Boise State
7. Notre Dame hosts 10 Georgia
8. Penn State hosts 9 Ole Miss

Why do I feel I've just completed an exercise in futility? If you've read this entire post, thanks. And I'm sure you and I can agree, weird that an Indiana team could slide in ahead of a team like Tennessee. But it does bring a smirk to my face!

Go Dawgs!

Bye weeks and home games and seedings, oh my!

So how are we feeling with the updated ranking last night? Dawgs moved up after beating Tennessee, but looks like we will need help to earn either a first round home game, and certainly a trip to the SECCG and potential bye week.

To be honest, I was a little surprised our Dawgs didn't get more of a bump in the standings. Taking a broader view, it looks like the committee is trying to find value in things like strength of schedule, overall wins vs losses against ranked opponents.

But if that were truly the case, Georgia should be higher. Never mind what I type and what they think, what say you?

In the end, here on Nov. 20th, we still have more meaningful football to be played. We could say that in years before, but this year seems to be tenfold. I mean, would SMU @ Virginia be of much concern were it not for potential impact in the ACC Conference standings?

Regardless, make sure you are still participating in the Mumme Poll. The dear Senator is truly missed this season. It's the least we could do. Because God I miss his insight in times like this!