Friday, November 8, 2024

Key to a W in Oxford

I think it starts with our offensive line. This is the highest paid, most talented defensive front we've faced this season. They thrive in the backfield, averaging over 10 TFLs and 4.5 sacks a game. 

It is definitely a full defensive team effort, but these are the four main culprits, all averaging double digits in tackles for loss:

  • Suntarine Perkins leads the Rebels in sacks and TFLs
    #4 Suntarine Perkins - Soph LB having a whale of a season
  • #38 JJ Pegues - Senior DT in his third season in Oxford after starting in Auburn
  • #1 Princely Umanmielan - Senior Edge Rusher, previously a Gator
  • #11 Chris Paul Jr. - Junior LB picked up off waivers from Arkansas
They way I see it, we have two things playing in our favor: 1) our OL is as healthy as its been in awhile, and 2) their defense hasn't played nearly the level of opponents that we have.

Our OL did pretty well in Texas, all things considered. It's going to be hard to run on these guys, so I'm looking for Bobo to get creative in the running game and utilize 11 and 86 in some misdirection and take advantage of the Rebels' tendency to be aggressive.

The last thing Carson Beck needs is a defensive front that consistently has their ears pinned back. Bobo might press the gas pedal down in some situations, but I'd like to see a workmanlike effort to move the chains and sit on the clock. If we're leaning on this defense in the 4th quarter, it's gonna be Goodnight Rebs!

Thursday, November 7, 2024

"He overcame a lot today." - Kirby on Beck

In between ripping lips, glad BassinDawg also caught this nugget from SEC Inside. Watch it and then answer a couple questions.

Does Kirby's locker room have a morale problem?

Can it be any clearer that 15 is our ride or die guy?

Tuesday, November 5, 2024

Carson "what the heck" Beck

Let's start with what we know.
  • Beck has an NFL arm that he will use to play on Sundays.
  • He has been pretty conservative with the ball dating back to last season. Checks down to safe(r) targets when necessary.
  • Except when he doesn't. The biggest games we've had this season (@ Bama, @ Texas, Florida) he's made some costly decisions with the ball. It's not just the 11 total INTs this season compared to six (!!) total last season. It's that most of them have been very bad reads/decisions.
  • Sometimes a QB gets dinged with an INT that could actually be another offensive player's fault - bad route, tipped ball, receiver got outplayed for the ball. Most of Carson's are entirely on him. And that's what's unsettling.
  • That all being said, Beck is our clear QB1, and based on the fact that he's thrown 7 interceptions in the last three games and yet Kirby still has not pulled him, it ain't very close between Beck and QB2.
Some things we've seen and heard that shed some light:
  • Bobo calls plays to start a game to get Beck in a rhythm. We know this based on our early game plans. When it goes well you get a 51-13 win over Kentucky in Athens last season. When it doesn't you get a 13-12 rock fight like we saw in Lexington back in September.
  • Beck has lost his most trusted targets. This is pretty evident as well. Many times Beck and his targets are not on the same page. And it's not just McConkey and Bowers being in the NFL. Word is his greatest rapport with a receiver after 2023 ended was with RaRa - gone! Next was Colbie Young - not available.*
  • Beck is not like Stetson. Well duh, but let me broaden this out. We've had quarterbacks for years who have (at least) grown up in Georgia, some even lifelong Dawg fans. Zeier, Bobo, Greene, DJ, Hutson, Fromm, Stetson just to name a few. Beck I think is more like Stafford. He came to Athens because it was the right business decision. Beck wanted to learn from Monken and now Bobo, because they could best prepare him for the NFL Draft.
Personally, I don't fault that decision if it's indeed true. He signed with Georgia right as Coley was being replaced by Monken. His other SEC options were Florida and Alabama. We know Mullen wasn't a great recruiter, so I see why Beck chose not to take his chances in Gainesville. So it was Sark or the incoming Monken. Beck had to see a better opportunity in Athens with Fromm leaving town. He'd be in a QB room with JT Daniels (Soph), Stetson Bennett (Jr), and D'Wan Mathis (Fr).** Alabama had Mac Jones (Jr) and Bryce Young (Fr).

Regardless, to my earlier point, Carson Beck is who we've got. In the third quarter against the Gators, Kirby/Bobo had every right to put in Stockton or Rashada. They didn't. That's all we need to know about which quarterback gives us the best chance to win. You can whine and complain, it doesn't matter. Beck is our quarterback. Ride or die! Just find a way to enjoy it. It's college football, not political nonsense. 😎

Kirby Smart and Mike Bobo know football. The rest of us are just thumb typing and sideline watching. Go Dawgs!

* Sounds like there is a chance Young makes it back on the roster. But at the moment for the unforeseeable future, the senior wide receiver is suspended pending battery and assault charges.
** Jamie Newman had transferred to UGA, but opted out in August 2020. Since Newman was a senior and Bennett was a junior and former walk-on, I can see why Athens was the more attractive landing spot.

National landscape - week 10, muddy waters

While I feel like we have a few teams that are definitely worthy, it's just a mess behind them right now. Luckily the real CFB Playoff rankings come out tonight. For now, let's get straight into it.

  1. Oregon (bye)
  2. Georgia (bye)
  3. Miami (bye)
  4. BYU (bye)
  5. Indiana (hosts)
  6. Texas (hosts)
  7. SMU (hosts)
  8. Ohio State (hosts)
  9. Notre Dame
  10. Boise State
  11. Tennessee
  12. Penn State

Oregon continues to show up and show out. Georgia is winning in spite of rampant turnovers behind a defense that looks like it's only going to get better. 

Indiana continues to impress. They go to Ohio State in a couple weeks. I considered dropping Penn State, but in the end left them at 12.

SMU is undefeated in the ACC, their only loss was to BYU by a field goal. I still have little faith in Miami, but they just keep winning. So Clemson's loss is their gain.

The SEC...I don't know. Texas, Tennessee, A&M, and LSU are good teams. I decided to leave the two of them with two losses out, for now.

Clemson and Iowa State are two that slipped out, but could work back into the fray. I have them on the bubble behind the likes of Army who probably deserves to be ranked. And they will if they take down Notre Dame (at home) in a couple weeks.

Anyway, as always, we close this weekly post with this: Those are at least some intriguing matchups in Round 1. $till not $old on making the $ea$on thi$ long. But I'd watch, and I gue$$ that'$ why they expanded, right?

Monday, November 4, 2024

Digesting the WLOCP - the bad, the good, and the HAVOC

Let's get the bad out of the way. Carson Beck had another awful start. He continues to struggle connecting with targets and overall doesn't look polished like he did towards the end of last season. The interceptions were baffling, to be honest.

The defense struggled in the first half and clearly missed Jackson and Aguero. The Gators should not have gotten that last field goal to end the half. Our secondary followed their motion and left a weakened weak side over-matched.

That's it. That's the bad. The defense returned to form when Jackson and Aguero were given their helmets back and released from SEC officiating purgatory. Florida didn't amass 200 total yards of offense until that last touchdown drive midway through the 4th quarter.

Bobo called a great game, balancing it between managing through Beck's rough start and losing Etienne. Frazier stepped up into the role well, and Cash did his usual Cash things. So the loss of Etienne was troubling, but not devastating by any means.

And Hello! Peanut! 

Saturday was probably the best game our tight end room has had this season: blocking, route running, and catching. That's encouraging!

Woodring and Thorson had great days, but until that bad snap/hold Florida was having an even better day at special teams.

I watched the tv version last night and was surprised to hear Herbstreit say the Georgia fans were not into it. In the stands I felt the opposite was true. Going back to Kirby's words to the fans after the Auburn game, I feel like Dawg fans have only gotten louder and dug in deeper behind the team.

And having a couple great defensive outings has helped. You take a play like Daniel Harris made, that brings a lot of noise from Georgia fans. Sacks, solid tackling, meeting the ball carrier at the line of scrimmage, CJ Allen leaping in anticipation of a bad pass...just HAVOC in general dissolves any perceived separation between those in red on the field and those in red in the stands.

Let's end with Beck. I'm sure you are hearing it too. No one knows more than Carson that he needs to be better. The fact that he's had three interceptions in each of the last two games and we've still managed to win both by two touchdowns is both amazing and nerve wracking.

But if you think he's not our best option by a wide margin, you're just not paying attention. Many coaches would've pulled the quarterback after that third interception in the early moments of the second half. And let's be honest, Beck could've had four by that time!

But Kirby did not pull him. That tells me Beck was still our best option to win the game. That being said, in the television replay I could see Kirby getting less "hand holding" with 15 and more firm in the "it's time to step up" message as we entered the final frame.

And let's be fair, Carson did step up. He was 11 for 11 in the deciding final 15 minutes of the game. 

I may spend another post on our quarterback later in the week, but for now let's acknowledge the fact that we've won four straight in Jacksonville. Something that we haven't been able to do since the '80s!

Go Dawgs!