Like many, I expect a pretty even matchup Monday night between Georgia and Alabama. Two complete teams with elite talent going head to head should make for an exciting game.
Not exciting like the Rose Bowl was, where dudes were scoring every time you managed a breath. But exciting as in close, and hard fought. Every yard inch will matter. So could this one come down to special teams play?
The teams are pretty even in punting and place kicking, although Rodrigo puts it in the endzone more proficiently. But there is a decided Georgia advantage in both kickoff and punt return. (via cfbstats.com)
Mecole Hardman, who has been so, so close to breaking a return all season, averages 11 yards per punt return and 27 yards per kick return. Alabama's top punt returner is Trevon Diggs who averages nearly nine yards a return and their top kick returner is Henry Ruggs who averages 18 yards.
If this evolves into a plodding game of field position, there are two things that can turn things - turnovers and punt returns. I glad we have 4 on our side. Even if he doesn't break one - and good God is Mecole overdue for that one last block!! - a nice return from inside the 20 to their side of the 50 can be a HUGE play for us.
Two more days! Keep the Main Thing the Main Thing...Go Dawgs!
If you haven't already I think you'd really enjoy this National Championship preview podcast from Solid Verbal. Dan chats with Chris Brown of Smart Football, who always has a certain depth to his analysis. He has some interesting thoughts on how Chaney specifically could impact the game. And I particularly appreciated how he breaks down the relationship between Kirby and Saban and the role it could play in terms of each others' understanding and game planning going into Monday night.
Suffice it to say, Brown isn't just giving the the relationship cute lip service like many national analysts. Add it to your podcast feed...soon!
One thing is clear, whichever team has the ball Monday night will be trying to establish the run. The Dawgs and the Tide, respectively, are one and two in the conference in rushing the football.
But how they go about achieving that goal are two vastly different animals.
Georgia uses a variety of sets and looks to get Nick Chubb and Sony Michel, college football's most prolific backfield tandem, into space. Offensive coordinator Jim Chaney wants to have the opponent's defense sufficiently worn down in the fourth quarter when he can even insert D'Andre Swift into the huddle with fresh legs.
For a great reference to that point, make sure you've thoroughly vetted this post by The Senator where he specifically points out how Oklahoma's secondary grew tired of being blocked the deeper into the game they got.
By contrast, Alabama uses multiple looks as well, but they rely heavily on the legs of Jalen Hurts, not to mention his ability to make the correct reads in the read-option and run-pass-option.
So when someone tries to tell you that this is just the same ol' Bama, take that with a grain of salt. Because they don't have that heavy bruiser of a tailback that they use to tote the rock 20-25 times a game.
Damien Harris is a strong runner and likes to get downhill. He's also athletic, something usually attributed more to his colleague Bo Scarbrough. But together they really handle most of the handoffs, albeit to the tune of just 19 carries/game combined (via cfbstats.com)
And that's because this is Jalen Hurts' show. He doesn't have as many yards as Harris, but he has the most carries. For the most part he does a good job of reading the defense and determining which run option is best.
However, he ain't perfect. This video of Sugar Bowl highlights gives you an idea of how they utilize the running backs mentioned, but also shows you that Hurts can get flustered. For instance, pay particular attention to the moderate pressure (at best) up the middle Clemson throws at him at about the 2:30 mark when they are able to force a fumble off a bad read and exchange.
That's something, as we discussed yesterday, that could play into Coach Tucker's hands. The Tiger linebacker is really just making a read and playing off of Hurts' eyes. I wouldn't even call it a blitz. Plug Roquan in there on a favorable down and distance and it could definitely lead to a positive result.
That's all well and good. But no matter what anyone (myself included) writes or what any expert on the television tells you this week, we all know from past meetings that this game will come down to which team controls the line of scrimmage best.
In the 2012 SECCG it was practically a draw at the line of scrimmage until late when we had used pretty much the same defensive front the entire game. John Jenkins was gassed and we couldn't stop Eddie Lacy or TJ Yeldon.
Tucker's defense is much more versatile than Grantham's 2012 version. And the point of this post is to highlight the possibility that Alabama's offense is less versatile today than it was then. In other words, stop Hurts and you stop the Tide. They just don't have that one running back that can wear on you from down to down.
Well, to be honest, I think Harris especially fits the bill. It's just that they don't use him that way. Perhaps I just haven't watched enough of them to know that they just don't need him or Scarbrough as much as Hurts. In Harris' best game against Vandy he had 12 carries for 151 yards. In the close game against Mississippi State thogh he was averaging over 11 yards a carry but only touched it eight times. Meanwhile Hurts had 19 carries for two yards a clip (sack yardage included).
Have they been saving 34 and 9's legs just for this game Monday?
In the end I'm going to give Georgia the edge in the rushing game, all while hoping I'm not just seeing what I want to see. Because admittedly, I've watched a lot more of Georgia than Alabama. I just see our rushing attack as much more versatile.
I know. It's so hard not to keep re-living those memories of the Rose Bowl. What an epic win! But we didn't do all that work just to rest on laurels, right?
The halftime adjustments by Tucker and Smart were what we've seen all season, just on a grander stage. My initial reflection was that Tucker got away from trying to contain Mayfield and squeeze the pocket, and used more stunts and blitzes, especially up the middle.
Well, I was partially right, as this video will show best. It's the back to back sacks on Mayfield in the third quarter that really started prove that the Sooners were going to have a tougher row to hoe in the second half.
The first sack is a coverage sack in my opinion. Tucker again uses four rushers to squeeze the pocket and by the time Mayfield tries to use his legs because there's no where to throw, Ledbetter is in his face with an easy sack.
And then...well, Tucker lets the boys loose!
Those two plays prove that, even though it may not have played out that way in the first half, Georgia had the defense to go up against this high-powered offense.
Okay, but aren't we supposed to be talking about Alabama? Yes, and that's my next point.
Jalen Hurts has a high of 16 completions in one game this season. And that was in the Sugar Bowl. We know he can hurt you with his arm, but only if you don't manage to stop the run.
Both of these defenses Monday night are going to be trying to do the same thing - stop each other's run game. And I think both are built just for that.
But I think Tucker will use similar schemes in containing Hurts that he did in the Rose Bowl's second half. He wants to contain Hurts as much as he can and force him to throw when he's uncomfortable. Stopping Harris and Scarbrough is a topic for later, because that is surely Tucker's biggest headache this week. Alabama has gained nearly a thousand more yards rushing this season than they have passing.
But games like this tend to come down to quarterback play. Hurts is a true winner, for sure. I like his style and leadership. Plus he comes up big in big moments.
But I like our guy. I think Fromm complements his offense in ways Hurts can only dream of. I just hope Tucker and those Savages can minimize Hurts' impact on the game.
It's taken a while to digest exactly what happened. It's so much more than the game itself. It's the experience and the sheer joy you feel when you see your team come out on top on that kind of stage. After a day of thinking and reflecting I still can't come up with the words. But I highly recommend you read this Tommy Tomlinson piece on his experience and why moments like what happened Monday night are so important.
As for the game itself, it was truly an instant classic. Reminiscent of game like the 2006 Rose Bowl which served as the National Championship game between Texas and USC. But this one was our own Georgia Bulldogs! Two amazing teams with amazing talent, both who clearly wanted to be there and wanted to win.
It was a game full of huge swings in momentum from sideline to sideline, as each big play seemed to be one that would finally turn the tide for good. But then there was another, and then another. And then there was another!
I had wondered a few weeks ago if time of possession would be the key factor in stopping the Oklahoma offense and giving us our best shot. I was right about being able to run the ball effectively, I just didn't take into account how effectively we would run it. Something like three drives that took less than a minute. It was the game we knew Sony and Chubb could and should have. So glad Sony got the chance to atone for that fumble and seal the deal himself. And more on that in a minute...
But there were a couple of smaller things that also became the Main Thing. I'll leave the argument of whether the decision to squib kick it to end the first half up to the Sooner fans. But the heads up play by a former reserve running back turned reserve linebacker in Tae Crowder to instinctively snag that kick and lay on it, was amazing.
Think about how easy it would be to just go out there as a kick return specialist and simply go through the motions. Special Teams coordinator Shane Beamer mostly gives credit where it is due, to Crowder, but I'm sure they had been warned to watch for an "nontraditional" kick off. Still, to be ready to go back to your days as a Harris County HS shortstop and snag that ball ended up being a game changer. It was. We had to have it!
Because with just a few ticks on the clock (and with our offensive coordinator in an elevator on the way to the locker room), we were able to call a quick out to Godwin and grab another nine yards and stop the clock with just a second left.
At this point I'm thinking, "Well, that makes Fromm's heave to the endzone a little shorter." But the coaches had another bold idea and Rodrigo took it from there. And there was never a doubt.
Another small thing I noticed that was huge was not just the blocking on that Sony Michel 27 yard touchdown trot, but actually who was blocking - reserve wide receivers and Nauta. Of course, Fromm gave his man on the outside all he could handle to give Sony the room to run. But to send out guys like Crumpton and Simmons and Blount, all with fresh legs and bodies in the second over time to lay some wood was a great call, and refreshing to see.
And now it's on to Alabama in the biggest game our Dawgs have been in since 1982. We've had games where we were playing for this chance. It just wasn't until Kirby preached to Keep the Main Thing the Main Thing that we actually succeeded in getting it done.
Things shifted when the bowls adapted into the Bowl Championship Series which begat the College Football Playoffs. Similarly things will shift Monday when the mere bowls give way to the real games.
Two epic matchups. And only two winners will prevail.
The real difference between those two bowls and the rest that we’ve witnessed before them is that Oklahoma and Georgia and Alabama and Clemson all are hungry. Teams in mere bowls are subject to changing coaches’ allegiances and seniors eyeing draft prospects and others lacking the hunger.
Every player in the games on Monday are hungry. The playing field doesn’t tilt on the whims of a coaching staff or a running back protecting his draft stock.
Today Missouri opens SEC bowl play in the Academy Sports + Outdoors Texas Bowl against the Texas Longhorns. It will be the first of nine bowls that feature a Southeastern Conference team, and thereby sparks up the annual dialogue about the myth that is "conference loyalty". Some people like to root for our own rivals. It's a practice that I fail to understand. I am a Georgia fan. Not an SEC fan. I can't stand the other teams in the SEC. I can't stand the referees in the SEC. I can't stand all of the Cracker Barrels in the SEC. And I hate watching those other teams win. Many of you may know that I graduated from Cedar Shoals High School. Our cross town rival was Clarke Centtral. They were bigger and better at most things as I was growing up. So was I filled with pride when they'd bring home another state title just because I was from Athens? Hell no. I hated them even more for it. The same way I hated it when Tennessee won the National Title in 1998, and don't even get me started on the Gators during their hey days. My heart skips a beat whenever one of our conference rivals' quarterbacks throws a pick six. Oh the joy!
So, you'd sit next to this and high five it when they scored? (Hypothetically. since we all know they ain't playing in no bowl game this year.)
I'd root for Russia over Florida and I'd prefer to be friends with JR Ewing over Philip Fulmer. At least when JR'd eventually stab me in the back he wouldn't smell like rank possum meat and gin while he did so. "But Bernie, what if I picked an SEC team in my bowl pool, or maybe even placed a wager on one of them to win a game?" Glad you asked. I hope you do well in your pool. I've picked my share of enemies to win some of those games too. But I'll be thrilled if they lose instead. If you placed a bet, I hope you don't lose your money. I really don't. But just because you think highly enough of the Gamecocks to bet $50 on them doesn't mean you need to cheer for them to do well. And if you show up on my lawn wearing orange it'll be a race between my youngest and my dog to see which gets a hold of your ass first. I'm a Dawg fan. To root for other SEC teams is a Tennessee Hillbilly kind of sad. Cuz those sonsabitches are sitting at home with nothing to do but live vicariously through the rest of us.
Georgia and Oklahoma are two of the marquee programs in college football and have been for decades, yet the Bulldogs and Sooners have never met on the gridiron. That changes on New Year’s Day at arguably the most storied venue in the sport, the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, Calif. The Dawgs opened as 1.5-point underdogs but a check of Bovada for latest odds on the game shows UGA as a 2-point favorite for the first national semifinal.Oklahoma has won six of its past seven games as an underdog, however, including both this year.
There are 41 bowl games this season, including the Jan. 8 national title matchup at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, and there perhaps isn’t a pairing of more polar opposites than Dawgs-Sooners.
Georgia, the SEC champion for the first time since 2005 under second-year coach Kirby Smart, wins with ball-control offense and a ferocious defense. Led by Nick Chubb and Sony Michel, one of the best tailback duos in the country, Georgia ranks 10th nationally in rushing yards per game at 263.5. Smart generally asks freshman quarterback Jake Fromm to manage the game and avoid mistakes – Fromm largely has with just five interceptions. He’ll run occasionally too.
Big 12 champion Oklahoma hasn’t faced a defense near as good as Georgia’s this season as the Dawgs rank fourth nationally in points allowed (13.2) and fourth in yards surrendered (271.0 ypg) behind Butkus Award winner and SEC Defensive Player of the Year Roquan Smith. Georgia allowed more than 20 points just twice: a 53-28 win over Missouri and a 40-17 loss at Auburn. UGA’s final three opponents, Kentucky, Georgia Tech and Auburn in the SEC title game, totaled just 27 points.
Behind Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Baker Mayfield, the Sooners lead the nation in total offense (583 ypg) and are third in passing (367.4 ypg) and scoring (44.9 ppg). Mayfield is No. 1 nationally in rating (203.8) and completion percentage (71.0) while ranking second in TD passes (41) and yards (4,340).
If there’s one quarterback comparison for Georgia this season regarding Mayfield, it’s Missouri’s Drew Lock, who threw for 3,695 yards and an NCAA-high 43 touchdowns. In the Tigers’ 53-28 loss in Athens on Oct. 14, Lock was 15-for-25 for 253 yards, four TDs and a pick. Missouri couldn’t run the ball whatsoever that day. OU has three running backs who have rushed for at least 500 yards, topped by Rodney Anderson’s 960 yards and 11 touchdowns. Mayfield himself has rushed for 310 and five scores.
Of course, it’s Georgia’s first-ever trip to the College Football Playoff. Oklahoma was a No. 4 seed in the playoff following the 2015 season and was routed 37-17 in the Orange Bowl semifinal by No. 1 Clemson.
This will be only the 10th time since 1966 that Georgia will face a Heisman winner in the same season the player won the trophy. It last happened in 2015 when Alabama running back Derrick Henry rushed for 148 yards and a touchdown in the Tide’s 38-10 win in Athens, a loss that helped spur the end of Mark Richt’s tenure. UGA’s last win over a Heisman winner in the same season was in 2007 over Florida and Tim Tebow – the infamous “Gator Stomp” game.
Either Georgia or Oklahoma would be an underdog in the national title game against No. 1 Clemson or No. 4 Alabama. Check Bovada for latest odds on that game. Incidentally, the 2015 Bama-Georgia matchup referenced above was the only time this decade that the Tide opened as a betting underdog. The Dawgs haven’t beaten Alabama since 2007 but have played only three times since. Georgia last played Clemson to open the 2014 season and throttled the Tigers in Athens, 45-21, behind four touchdowns and 293 all-purpose yards from Todd Gurley. Deshaun Watson wasn’t Clemson’s starting QB yet back then.
Like you, I’ve been following and subsequently been confused by this Natrez Patrick affair. The facts are: 1) he’s known as much for being in the wrong pot at the wrong time as much as he is for making tackles, 2) the charges following the SECCG were dropped, 3) he subsequently both passed and failed a drug test, and 4) UGA is playing coy about his future.
Yesterday, the AJC’s most prolific pontificator since Terence Moore left town, Jeff Schultz weighed in. Schultz was his usual pompous, arrogant, click bait self. He pretended to know facts that he can’t possibly presume to know. He used the term “Bulldog Justice” with an air of both a thumb aside his nose and another up his ass.
UGA shouldn’t let Patrick play any more games with a G on his helmet. The dude has a problem and not the least of it is that he puts smoking pot above playing for the University that you and I hold dear. He’d rather continue to get caught in the wrong place at the wrong time than increase our team’s chance at winning. Or more personally, he’d rather take chances around random marijuana leaves, however minuscule, than potentially increase his draft stock this spring.
There’s one thing I do know. And that is that Patrick has one game, potentially two games left at UGA. He’s moving on to the NFL regardless after this season. We can pretend that it’s to further his game and play at the next level. But the truth is that, from what we’ve witnessed, it’s more likely that he’s moving on to be able to afford a better strain of weed.
To allow him to play in the Rose Bowl is to give him a pass. He won’t learn and at best he’ll go on to be an average player that continues to put a chance to smoke weed above being a team player. At worst he puts all that above being a good man, son, dad, human being.
Sit him down and the stakes go up. He is forced to answer tougher questions. He is forced to show he can put football above his next toke on the pipe. He’s forced to re-evaluate his life decisions. He’s forced to become a man.
This isn’t a political issue. I’m not for pot legalization and I’m not against it. I’m glad the Barrow county charges were dropped because they were bullshit, to be perfectly honest. This isn’t a football issue either. Life is bigger than football.
This is a personal issue. Kirby has a chance to help both his player and the program. What does every other player that practices hard and puts the team first learn if Natrez plays in Pasadena?
Yes, we are the new Georgia. We signed on for this and Kirby has us at the precipice of something special. But the truth is we don’t need Natrez Patrick to beat Oklahoma any more than we needed him during the games he was suspended. We can still be bigger than the issue, the lawyers, the newsprint, and the charges that #6 has brought to the spotlight.
We’re still Georgia. We can win with players that truly want to play football. And if I’m being perfectly honest, I’m not convinced Natrez Patrick really wants to play football.
Now that the bowls have started, have you noticed how much air time Georgia is getting in half-time commentary, ESPN playoff commercials, and general highlights? Although it still feels a little surreal, it also is helping it to hit home that "HOLY CRAP! We're in the CFB Playoffs and have to play Oklahoma y'all!"
We were in Virginia visiting the in-laws this weekend. The wife and I went into a local grocery store and were immediately met by the Salvation Army greeter who gave us a solid and boisterous "Go Dawgs!" upon seeing our red and black attire. He explained that he wasn't a Georgia fan but he'd be rooting for us. It seems fans that have no dog in the hunt still like a good Dawg to pull for.
Then as we were checking out a dude came up behind me and practically screamed "I hope y'all beat Bama!" I turned around and it was a guy wearing an Ohio State jacket and cap. He had strong opinions about how the Tide got in the playoffs despite a weak schedule and subsequently screwed over the Buckeyes.
Funny how he didn't want to talk about Iowa or 2016's version of Penn State getting left out. Anyway, it's cool seeing your team get so much air time. And I bet there are plenty of "Dawg fans in Exhile" enjoying the fact that the Dawgs are firmly in the national spotlight and have had similar experiences to the one we had at a Richmond area Kroger.
It's a fantastic addition to this Holiday season thus far. And a reminder that the coaches and staff are probably more nervous than a long-tailed cat in a room full of rocking chairs about the players losing focus and getting a lot of this talk in their ears.
