Before you dig in, some explanation. As usual, all stats come courtesy of CFBStats.com. I started this wanting to level the playing field as much as possible and pull out all non-conference games. When I looked at the schedules and results for the three teams I suspected doing so wouldn't clarify the picture anymore significantly. So in the end I started with the full slate and feel this pretty much nails where the three teams performed last season. Obviously Chavis and Grantham had one more game averaged in there with the SECCG. Overall, I doubt that changed things significantly either. Also, I decided to break down the turnovers; the number in parenthesis is the total number of fumbles by opponents. The last two columns show how efficient the defense was in those circumstances. I took the value Marty had on his site and then subtracted from 100% to get a value directly attributed to each defense. For example, if opponents were 45% on 3rd down, the defense grades out at 55% efficient.
Points Allowed
|
Avg Pts Allowed
| Turnovers | INT/Fum |
3rd Down eff
|
Red Zone eff
| |
UGA
|
288
|
20.6
|
26
|
14/12 (32)
|
71.07
|
9.37
|
Bama
|
106
|
8.2
|
15
|
8/7 (18)
|
75.54
|
41.18
|
LSU
|
158
|
11.3
|
17
|
5/12 (29)
|
66.03
|
11.54
|
Clearly Bama has the better numbers. That much we expected. And Smart's stat line is bolstered by the one column that arguably matters most, Red Zone efficiency. A whopping 41% of the time Bama's opponents entered the red zone they were leaving the field without any points. No wonder the Crimson Tide only allowed 106 points all season.
Some other notes:
- Clearly the South Carolina game and the SECCG hurt Grantham's overall numbers; two games that were largely not in his control given the offensive and special teams mishaps. However, the Boise, Vandy and MSU games can certainly counter-balance that some.
- I left the total fumbles in parenthesis partly just to be able to see that 32 in there. That's impressive. A lot of active hands in Grantham's scheme.
- Grantham's defense is impressive on 3rd down, but clearly has some work to do in the red zone, where Georgia was 116th nationally. (By comparison, LSU was 106th and obviously Bama was 1st...by a wide margin, very wide.)
Now let's go one step further and compare Georgia's 1st and 2nd season under Grantham just for kicks and giggles.
Points Allowed
|
Avg Pts Allowed
|
Turnovers
|
INT/Fum
|
3rd Down eff
|
Red Zone eff
| |
2010
|
287
|
22.1
|
18
|
8/10 (22)
|
58.14
|
18.42
|
2011
|
288
|
20.6
|
26
|
14/12 (32)
|
71.07
|
9.37
|
Some of you that were pounding on Grantham are about to take that RZ number and run. And overall I would say I'm surprised there wasn't a bigger statistical difference step forward from year one to two of Grantham's defense. After all, he had some key cogs in place last season that were not around in 2010.
However, stats only get you so far. I'll wrap up with something I alluded to in that post the other day. In past years those stats would be used in the off season to hide complacency in the corner. Even as mediocrity became too big of an elephant not to talk about, the coaching staff would entrench themselves in whatever haphazard analysis helped prove whatever overused excuse they were grasping onto.
You don't get that sense from Todd Grantham. My feeling is that he's just as pissed about every last one of those 575 total points allowed as he is at James Franklin's douche quotient. He's not going to just pat some 5th year senior on the back, thank him for sticking around and send him in to faceguard on 1st and 10.
In short, we're making progress. How much? We may know the answer to that as soon as September 8th.
7 comments:
Here is the deal. We tend to keep the other teams in the game with turn overs, pick 6's, and lack of ball control. The players and mentality for an SEC championship defense are just arriving thanks to CTG. When you can't out score Central Florida 2 years ago that says something. While our offensive stats may be gaudy and rank high in the sec categories, our lack of
of ball control and offensive turnovers are not sec championship worthy.
Let me make it easier for you. Against ranked teams, among his SEC peers, just put in 11 or 12 ranking (in other words, pretty much last/worst) for the following defensive categories and you got what Grantham was all about in 2011:
fumbles recovered
sacks
tackles for loss
points scored against
Can't be much worse than that.
The things I look for, are against ranked teams, where did Alabama excel, and we bottomed out? Those are the most obvious areas to address.
I found 2, the 2 you mentioned Bernie:
1) scoring
2) red zone td's allowed
In both areas, Alabama was #1, UGA was 11 or 12.
Bernie,
You learn nothing by looking at how Grantham's defense performed against New Mexico State. It just hides the issues.
Look at how we did against the big boys, the teams that finished top 25, and you'll learn why we lost those 4 games.
The season broke down like so:
when the defense held to below 30 points, we won all 10 games and wqent 10-0
when the defense gave up30 points or more, we went 0-4.
it's the shootouts we tend to lose, because we don't win those kind of games.
The bottom line is this: Richt holds his defense to a higher standard than his offense. As fans we pull our hair out and scream from the highest building. But there is not change. Until Richt changes is stripes or until he is gone, we can expect the same results. He leans on a strong defense to compensate for a weak offense. And the kicker is that Richt is an offensive-minded coach. I know, it is nutty.
Pretty sure the season will unfold as follows, Grantham's d will hold all the teams with losing records to low numbers to jack his numbers up, and then Grantham's D will get blown out with 30-45 points dropped on them to teams like Mizzou, S Carolina, Auburn, Florida, GTech, and then get blown out by coughing up 33 in the Bowl game to a big 12 team.
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