the Longshots Impossibilities

Last week I promised an individual post for each of my bullet points in Richt's To-Do List. When I made that promise I didn't realize exactly how much reading I would need to do to be able to type intelligently on the NFL's Collective Bargaining Agreement. And I intended to do these in the order in which they were presented. All that to say two things really: I'm sorry it's taken this long for the first installment and I'm still no expert in lawyerese.

I get the feeling that many fans across the country believe the potential work stoppage in the pros may affect rising seniors and red-shirt juniors' decisions significantly. The fact of the matter is that this likely isn't true at all. Namely for these reasons:

• I don't believe there will be a work stoppage. It doesn't appear owners or players are in any position financially to afford it. Owners have been hit by the recession pretty hard and players tend to spend as fast as they run. Couple that with the fact that there's been few (if any) hard lines when it comes to negotiating so far and it seems less and less likely the NFLPA and the NFL owners will allow a work stoppage.
• And even if negotiations eventually do fall through, it would likely come well after January 15th which is the deadline for underclassmen to declare. 

In the words of Montgomery Gentry...Gone!

So I expect current underclassmen like AJ and Justin to monitor the NFL headlines, but it shouldn't prove much of a factor. Any college player with remaining eligibility that declares on the 15th of January will already be cozy with an agent shortly thereafter. Meaning, they're gone. Done with classes and dorm life forever.

Other factors that will come into play with AJ, Justin Houston and any others:

• Family. Do they feel a pressing need to support their loved ones monetarily? How big of an emphasis is placed on education?
• Education. How close are they to graduation? And closer doesn't always necessarily help the player lean towards staying. If they are a semester or two away in a major that can be found online, it becomes that much easier to finish in the comfort of their own new home with a brand new laptop.
• Maturity. Sometimes you see kids jump too soon before they are ready athletically or emotionally. Sometimes you see grown men wait despite the fact that they are ready athletically, simply because they are not yet ready to leave what has become their second home.

But you and I both know the greatest (and usually only) factor is money. I also did a lot of searching in terms of draft status for AJ and Justin. I didn't see AJ below a 5th pick overall and saw Justin as high as late round 1 (keep in mind this is early for even speculative mock drafts, given that the teams' positions on the board plays a big role. Especially for a player like Houston that may not fit every defensive scheme).

I don't have as good a read on Justin, but I'm sure AJ would love to stay another season. But when you're the best prospect at wide receiver and can only help your stock through a combine...it proves to be nearly impossible to turn down the money. So I expect both numbers 8 and 42 to be available. We'll see if there are any surprises in the coming weeks.