National Landscape, week three. The Dawgs lose a first round bye.

Once again, this week brings some changes. Although I'm not overly concerned about this Georgia team, I do admit it now feels less likely we can go undefeated. The Dawgs' schedule is just brutal and the offensive line is down a starter and looked road weary already Saturday night.

So I'm shaking up my SEC stance this week. I'm moving Texas up to the top, which drops Georgia significantly. And I'm also shying away from my confidence in the SEC getting five teams in. To put it as concisely as I can, I think Georgia, Alabama, and Texas are my clear favorites to compete for the conference crown. And I think all three get in the playoffs. That leaves Ole Miss, Missouri and Tennessee on a second tier, and maybe only one of them gets in.

Why? Of those three, Tennessee has the hardest path. They get Bama at home, and go on the road against their other two ranked opponents - Oklahoma this weekend, and Georgia in November. Missouri - away games against A&M and Bama, home against Oklahoma. Ole Miss - home against Oklahoma and Georgia. It's early I know, but it feels like these three need to shove their way onto that first tier to guarantee a spot come December.

Lucky for them, there's still a LOT of football to be played.

In the ACC, I'm sticking with Clemson over Miami. And I still don't see a second team making the playoffs. In the Big10 however, Oregon finally showed some hope for a post-season run in their win over a pesky Oregon State team. I'll keep Penn State and Ohio State in, but move the Ducks up to a 1st round bye. And in the Big 12, Kansas State's rout of Arizona put them on my radar. But I'm keeping Utah as both the Big 12's conference champ and only seed in the bracket.

The only thing left to decide: if I scale the SEC's seedings down from five to four, who gets the other spot. At this point I'd have to go with the Salukis, as NIU's victory over Notre Dame is the Group of 5's biggest win thus far. In fact it only looked better after the Fighting Irish laid waste to the Boilermakers this past weekend. But keeping an eye on Toledo and Memphis here too.

Onto the bracket:

1. Texas (bye)
2. Oregon (bye)
3. Utah (bye)
4. Clemson (bye)
5. Georgia (hosts)
6. Penn State (hosts)
7. Alabama (hosts)
8. Ohio State (hosts)
9. Ole Miss
10. UCF
11. Boise State
12. NIU

Yes, I know that Tennessee and Missouri are likely better than (probably) both Group of 5 teams. But it's September 18th, and I prefer to recognize NIU's play on the field rather than reward something...I don't know...something like an onside kick in the 1st quarter when you're up 30-0.

Anyway, as always, we close this weekly post with this: Those are at least some intriguing matchups in Round 1. $till not $old on making the $ea$on thi$ long. But I'd watch, and I gue$$ that'$ why they expanded, right?